Retail Forecasts H1 2012: UK Sector Summary
Verdict Research Limited, February 2012
A unique forecasting tool providing dynamic forecasts and analysis of market demand and price pressures. This is a summary report covering total retail, sectors and channels - clothing & footwear, DIY & gardening, electricals, furniture & floorcoverings, food & grocery, health & beauty, homewares and DIY Superstores.
Scope:
- Brief review of economic trends and how they impact retail, explaining how key economic metrics will evolve over the next two years
- Forecasts of how overall retail and retail sectors will fare over the next ten quarters, examining volume, inflation and overall growth rates
- Category level forecasts are provided to fully inform growth strategies
Highlights:
- Overall 2012 retail growth is forecast at 1.2% - the third lowest growth rate in 40 years. Best performing categories include food & grocery, clothing & footwear and health & beauty.
- Home related categories will suffer the most as the housing market remains weak – furniture & floorcoverings will be the worst performing in H1 2012, followed by DIY & gardening and electricals.
- Inflationary pressures ease in H1 2012. Non-food inflation is flat in Q1 and deflation returns in Q2 as the impact of the VAT rate annualises. However, pressures remain in food with inflation set to hold firm at 3.0%.
Key questions answered:
- Are we facing a double dip recession and what impact will this have on the retail sector?
- When should I plan for an economic recovery?
- Which retail sectors will perform the best through 2012–14? Which sectors should my business focus on?
- Which sectors will be most impacted by high unemployment?
OVERVIEW
Summary
Methodology
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Introduction
Scope
Methodology
Principle Sources
UK QUARTERLY FORECAST SUMMARY
A review of H2 2011 and a look ahead
Christmas a mixed bag
Difficult environment illustrated by casualties
UK economic situation deteriorates
Unemployment worsens…
… and youth unemployment will harm specific sectors
APPENDIX
Definitions
Current Prices
Constant Prices
Volume Growth
Inflation
Total Growth
Percentage point difference with Total Retail
Health & beauty forecasting changes
DIY & Gardening forecasting changes
Help and tips to use the quarterly forecasts
Printing
Copying data to Excel
Viewing
Inserting slides into your own presentations
Ask the analyst
Verdict consulting
Disclaimer
TABLES
Table: Principle sources of data and information
FIGURES
Figure: Verdict forecasting methodology
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