Optical Communications Market Forecast: Tested by an Earthquake, a Tsunami and a Flood in 2011, the Industry is Poised to Navigate Well Through Macroeconomic Uncertainty in 2012-2015
Lightcounting, December 2011, Pages +: 56
The forecast report presents analysis of business and CapEx of the top 12 service providers, as well as trends in networking equipment market and business of leading equipment manufacturers.
The report also offers a detailed forecast for optical components and modules, including historical data from 2008 to 2011 and a detailed market forecast through 2015 for optical components and modules used in Ethernet, Fibre Channel, SONET/SDH, CWDM/DWDM, wireless infrastructure, FTTx, and high-performance computing (HPC) applications.
The sales data for 2008 to 2011 account for more than 30 transceiver vendors, including 25 vendors that shared confidential sales data with LightCounting.
The market forecast for 2012-2015 is based on LightCounting's model correlating transceiver sales with network traffic growth and projected subscribers of FTTx systems. LightCounting's team of analysts is also grateful to many industry experts for critical review of the forecast projections.
Abstract
Executive Summary
Section 1: Carrier CapEx Overview
Global service provider revenue and CapEx is on the rise
Carriers are becoming information brokers
After several years of constrained investment, we are at the start of a new investment cycle
Growth in mobile networks is driving revenue growth and CapEx
Voice is taking a backseat to broadband in driving investment decisions and revenue growth
Service providers are moving into cloud computing
Economic growth will put increased pressure on carriers for consolidation
Section 2: Service Provider Highlights
AT&T
China Mobile
China Telecom
Comcast
Deutsche Telekom
France Telecom
KDDI
NTT
Telecom Italia
Telefonica
Verizon
Vodafone
Section 3: Trends in the Global Telecom Equipment Market
Alcatel-Lucent is forced to reduce cost
Ericsson is in the lead again
Huawei is targeting only 10% growth in 2011
Nokia Siemens Networks narrows its focus
ZTE moves into top three in global optical networking equipment market share
Section 4: Datacom Equipment Market and Vendor Highlights
Brocade rebounds in SAN and Ethernet
Optical Communications Market Forecast – December 2011
Cisco refocuses on its core markets
Dell emphasizes enterprise solutions and services, profitable PCs
EMC keeps rolling, boosted by midtier sales
HP resets expectations
IBM Executes on its long term growth strategy
Juniper's new T4000 and QFabric bode well for 2012
Section 5: Market forecast for optical transceivers employed in telecom applications
CWDM and DWDM Transceivers
Core networks continue to roll out higher speeds
The 40/100G opportunity is slipping away from module vendors
Tunable and fixed wavelength XFP modules will dominate 10G DWDM market
SONET/SDH transceivers
XFP dominates at 10Gbps, with SFP+ on the horizon
FTTx Transceivers
Optical modules for wireless infrastructure
Section 6: Datacom Transceivers
Ethernet Transceivers
Datacenter connections drive growth
Rise of SFP+
Higher-speed Ethernet moves forward
The battle of 40GigE and 100GigE
Form factors split
100GBASE-FR?
Copper: Low power 10GBASE-T is gaining momentum
Fibre Channel Transceivers
The Age of 8G?
Ethernet in the storage market (FCoE)
Optical Interconnects
Forecast changes
Section 7: Forecast Methodology
Appendix A: Selected financial data
- AT&T
- China Mobile
- China Telecom
- Comcast
- Deutsche Telekom
- France Telecom
- KDDI
- NTT
- Telecom Italia
- Telefonica
- Verizon
- Vodafone
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