Brazil Real Estate Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, February 2012, Pages: 64
The Brazilian economy continues to enjoy growth in spite of global economic headwinds. However, the downside risks are growing and many analysts are becoming increasingly bearish towards the emerging market giant. BMI remains above consensus with our Brazilian forecasts for economic fundamentals, and we believe that infrastructure will also perform well although the sector will not be efficiently exploited to its full potential. The picture on the cards for real estate is similar, our newly gathered fully year 2011 data revealed year-on-year growth across all of the commercial sectors and cities surveyed, however H211 failed to capitalise upon the momentum – particularly in rental rates – of H111.
Some of the key opportunities currently in the real estate market are:
- Brazil’s massive infrastructure deficit and unexploited mineral wealth are likely to see strong foreign direct investment flow continue over the next few years, despite the weaker global growth outlook.
- The 2014 FIFA World Cup and the 2016 Olympics the 2014 World Cup are set to promote investment into sectors that traditionally benefit from major sporting events – including beer, soft drinks and retail – with these events representing an opportunity for Brazil to shine as both an investment and tourist destination. Retail rents are due to outperform over the period.
- The relative ease of access to capital from foreign institutions, through Brazilian banks and through the local stock market, has probably never been greater.
- Brazil’s growing international importance as an economy, with its position as a flourish commercial hub and emergent financial districts present long term upside risks to the office real estate segment. Some key risks to the current real estate market are:
- The lingering problems of bureaucracy and a cumbersome legal system – which have acted as a barrier to entry for real estate development.
- External headwinds pose the biggest risk to our outlook, should global growth slow significantly over the next few months this could impact international investments and stall growth, particularly in the infrastructure sector.
Business Monitor International's Brazil Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, real estate associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Brazil's Real Estate industry.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Brazil Real Estate SWOT
Brazil Political SWOT
Brazil Economic SWOT
Brazil Business Environment SWOT
Real Estate Market Overview
Market Analysis – Office
Rents and Yields
Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (BRL per m2/month)
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases – Mid 2011
Supply and Demand
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases – Mid 2011
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%)
Market Analysis – Retail
Rents and Yields
Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (BRL per m2/month)
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/Leases – Mid 2011
Supply and Demand
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Forecast Rents – (BRL per m2/month)
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016
Table: Brazil Retail Sales Indicators
Market Analysis – Industrial
Rents and Yields
Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (BRL per m2/month)
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/Leases – Mid 2011
Supply and Demand
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Forecast Rents – (BRL per m2/month)
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016
Construction And Infrastructure Outlook
Table: Brazil Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
Table: Brazil Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Outlook
Brazil – GDP Contribution To Growth
Brazil – GDP By Expenditure
Business Environment
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Ratings
Table: Latin Americas Business Environment Ratings
Business Environment Outlook
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings
Institutions
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating
Infrastructure
Table: Labour Force Quality
Market Orientation
Table: Latin America, Annual FDI Inflows
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2002 - 2009
Operational Risk
Competitive Landscape
Company Profiles
BR Malls Participações
Camargo Corrêa
Construtora Norberto Odebrecht
Construtora Norberto Odebrecht
EVEN SA
Multiplan Empreendimentos Imobiliários
OAS
Trisul
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Bank Lending
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources
- BR Malls Participações
- Camargo Corrêa
- Construtora Norberto Odebrecht
- Construtora Norberto Odebrecht
- EVEN SA
- Multiplan Empreendimentos Imobiliários
- OAS
- Trisul
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