Bulgaria Telecommunications Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, February 2012, Pages: 98
The Q212 update to the Bulgaria telecommunications report contains BMI’s revised forecasts for the mobile market based on latest regulatory and operator data. There are no changes to our forecasts for the fixed-line and broadband markets, as well as for mobile ARPUs through to 2016. In addition, the Bulgaria report contains updated operational and financial data for the country’s major network operators, as well as an overview of mobile content and value-added services, and an update to the regulatory environment.
Based on Q311 figures published by Bulgaria’s two largest mobile operators – Telekom Austria-backed Mobiltel and Globul, which is owned by OTE of Greece – and a company statement from Vivacom relating to the performance of its mobile operations in 2011, we estimate that the country’s mobile subscriber base grew by 2.3% during Q311, up from the 1.9% growth recorded the previous quarter, to reach 11.267mn subscribers. This represented the sector’s strongest quarter of growth since Q407.
Looking ahead, we consider the growth prospects to be limited with penetration rates above 140%. We do not expect rapid subscriber growth to return to the Bulgarian market considering the high mobile penetration rate and the introduction of mandatory SIM registration. Rather, we expect operators to focus on attracting higher value subscribers and expanding their postpaid subscriber bases to ensure ARPU stability. By 2016, we forecast Bulgaria’s mobile penetration rate to reach 170.7%. We also expect 3G connections, which accounted for just 9.4% of total mobile subscriptions in 2010, to account for around 28.3% of the mobile market by 2016.
Some key developments in the Bulgarian telecoms market in Q411 include the cancellation of the tender for a fourth 3G mobile licence because of a lack of bidders and the allocation of spectrum in the 1,800MHz band to Max Telecom, 4G Com and Bulsatcom. We are not surprised by the lack of interest in the licence for a fourth mobile operator considering the high mobile penetration and limited subscriber growth opportunities. The CRC has yet to announce an alternative plan for the two sets of 15MHz spectrum in the 2GHz band. BMI expects it will seek to auction the spectrum again, but may look to sell it to existing players in the telecoms arena.
Meanwhile, in November 2011, BTC, operating as Vivacom, was reported to be available for purchase again. The incumbent is currently controlled by its creditors who have hired Morgan Stanley to serve as a consultant in finding a buyer for the company. The move to put BTC back on the market follows the collapse of the transaction in October 2010 that would have seen Dubai-based Oger Telecom take over the company's management. In January 2011, Austrian incumbent Telekom Austria, which owns Bulgarian mobile market leader M-Tel, was reported to be considering a bid for BTC. Meanwhile, Turkey's largest mobile operator Turkcell is also reportedly interested in the operator. BMI considers both potential bidders to have the financial and operational credentials to benefit the market if they took control of Vivacom, which dominates Bulgaria's wireline segment.
Business Monitor International's Bulgaria Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's telecommunications industry.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Bulgaria Mobile SWOT
Bulgaria Wireline SWOT
Bulgaria Political SWOT
Bulgaria Economic SWOT
Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT
Risk/Reward Ratings
Central And Eastern Europe
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q212
Bulgaria
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts
ARPU
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile ARPU (BGN) – Historical Data & Forecasts
Fixed Line
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts
Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Table: Bulgarian Mobile Net Additions, Q311
3G
Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Total Mobile Market
Table: Mobiltel
Table: Globul
Table: Vivacom
Industry Trend Analysis - Content Rises On A CEE Of Data
Table: Mobile Broadband Subscriptions By Operator
Top 10 Sites By Visits On Opera Mini-browser, Select Countries In CEE
Country Outlook
Value-Added Services Timeline
Table: VAS Timeline
Fixed Line
Broadband
Wireline (Fixed-Line & Broadband) Developments
Table: Wireline Developments (2008-2010)
Regulatory Environment
Table: Bulgaria Regulatory Bodies And Responsibilities
Legislation
Regulation
Recent Developments
Competitive Landscape
Competitor Analysis
Key Players
Table: Key Players: Bulgaria Telecoms Sector
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2003-2009
Company Monitor
Nokia Siemens Networks - Net Sales By Geographic Area, 2010-2011
Nokia Siemens Networks: Key Contracts In CEE Region, 2011-2012
Operator Profiles
Vivacom
Mobiltel (M-Tel)
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Broadband
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Country Snapshot: Bulgaria Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings System
Indicators
Table: Ratings Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources
- Vivacom
- Mobiltel (M-Tel)
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