Czech Republic Tourism Report Q2 2012
- ID: 2077827
- February 2012
- Region: Czech Republic
- 54 Pages
- Business Monitor International
After a solid rebound in 2010, the Czech Republic looks likely to record a good year for foreign tourism in 2011. Figures for Q311 show a 5.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in foreign arrivals in the hospitality sector. This was the weakest quarterly growth rate for 2011 so far, after growth of 7% y-o-y in Q111 and particularly strong growth of 13.5% y-o-y in Q211. However, on a cumulative basis, over the first three quarters of the year growth was a still favourable 8.5% y-o-y.
The favourable growth in Q2 came from a buoyant increase in foreign tourist overnight stays, up by over 15% y-o-y, to about 5.5mn nights (about 58% of the total). In contrast, nights spent by domestic tourists fell by about 2% y-o-y to 4.1mn. Total guest numbers rose by almost 9% y-o-y in Q211, with the number of foreign and domestic guests increasing by 13.5% and 3.4% y-o-y respectively. Nights by foreign tourists in the spa sector increased by a solid 10%, but resident tourist nights declined by almost 8%.
Hospitality sector data for Q311 show a marginal fall of 0.2% y-o-y in total overnight stays in all accommodation establishments to just under 14mn. Although foreign tourist overnight stays were up by just under 5% y-o-y, nights spent by domestic tourists fell by around 4% y-o-y. During 9M11, total overnight stays grew by 3.6% y-o-y. This can be attributed to relatively strong foreign tourist nights growth (9% y-o-y), while domestic tourist nights declined by 1.3% y-o-y. The number of foreign and domestic guests rose by 8.5% and 3.3% y-o-y respectively in 9M11, with total guest numbers up by 6%.
In the spa sector, total overnight stays fell by about 2% y-o-y in Q3, of which non-resident nights rose by 2.7% y-o-y and resident nights fell by 4.5% (after a weak performance in Q1 and Q2). The major source market for tourists, Germany, which accounted for just under 20% of total visitors, provided a 7% y-o-y increase in guest numbers in Q311 (6.6% over 9M11). Russian visitors were again up sharply, by about 26% y-o-y in Q311 (over 38% in the first three quarters). All of the top-10 source markets achieved positive y-o-y growth in arrivals in 9M11, aside from the UK, which recorded a sharp fall of around 10%.
Our growth estimate for foreign tourist arrivals in 2011 is down slightly to 7.2%, from 7.5% previously. We maintain our view of weaker growth in foreign tourism in 2012, at less than 4% y-o-y, but expect growth to recover in the following year. Our forecasts mainly depend on mild recession in the eurozone – the key source region – over the next year, with growth in the coming years likely to be very weak. Our economic growth projections are 1.6% for 2011, -0.5% (revised down) in 2012 and 1.3% in 2013. Growth in Germany – the most important market for inbound tourism – is forecast to slow sharply from 3.0% in 2011 to 0.3% in 2012, picking up to 2.1% in 2013. In the UK, the second key source market, growth is expected to slow to 0.6% in 2012 (from 1.0% in 2011), edging up to 1.7% in 2013. Relatively strong economic growth in Russia over the same period though should support recent buoyant tourism to the Czech Republic. In a revision to our currency outlook, we expect the Czech koruna to remain under pressure in the coming months and forecast the unit to average CZK25.45/EUR in 2012. As such, the short-term currency effect is likely to be mildly positive on foreign tourism.
Prague Ruzyne Airport
Figures for the first 11 months of 2011 show a moderate 2.1% y-o-y rise in total passenger numbers at Prague Ruzyne Airport to about 11mn. International traffic rose by about 2.5% y-o-y, while domestic traffic fell substantially, by around 38% y-o-y.
Passenger traffic data for Czech Airlines (CSA) show it is set to record yet another poor year in 2011, with figures for the first 11 months showing a fall of over 6% y-o-y in scheduled passenger numbers.
Low-cost Czech carrier SmartWings plans to start a new connection between Prague and Bilbao in summer 2012, expanding its services to Spain. In April 2012, Italian carrier Air One will start a regular scheduled service between Prague and Venice.
Business Monitor International's Czech Republic Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Czech Republic's tourism industry. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
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