Saudi Arabia Agribusiness Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, February 2012, Pages: 52
Saudi Arabia Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Saudi Arabia's agribusiness service.
BMI View:
The decision by Saudi Arabia to phase out its water intensive crops has continued to push the government towards increases in the domestic grains storage capacity and land purchases in foreign countries. For livestock, we forecast poultry production growth to be subdued in 2012 because of stagnating incomes on the back of a gloomy global economy, but we believe government support will help boost production over the coming years. Similar public investment in the dairy industry should not have an impact on production growth before some years.
Key Forecasts
- Corn production growth to 2015/16: 7.6% to 182,900 tonnes. Much of this production will come on a subsistence level and the country will remain a massive net corn importer over the medium term.
- Milk consumption growth to 2016: 18.7% to 1.9mn tonnes. Rising disposable income and increasing health-consciousness remain the key drivers behind dairy industry growth.
- Chicken production growth to 2015/16: 12.7% to 666,900 tonnes. This will come on the back of government support programs through which it started subsidising producers to help them construct cold stores and buy refrigerated trucks and farm packaging equipment in an effort towards modernisation.
- 2012 real GDP growth: 4.0% average, down from 7.2% in 2011. Predicted to average 4.1% from 2011 to 2016.
- 2012 consumer price inflation: 4.9% average, down from 5.0% 2011.
Industry Developments
Saudi Arabia increased its storage capacity for grains by 550,000 to 2.5mn tonnes in order to keep down domestic grain prices. In fact, the government decided to increase wheat stocks in order to nearly cover a year's domestic grain consumption. This follows the decision to phase out domestic wheat production out to 2016, which is making the country very dependent on imports, and has pushed domestic prices higher in the short term. According to the USDA, the country is meant to import 2.0mn tonnes of wheat in 2011/12.
Although we continue to see Saudi dairy group Almarai as an outperformer in the Middle East food sector and as a contributor to Saudi food security, we highlight the risks - in the form of legislation - to its strategy of acquiring farmland. The company recently purchased 12,000 hectares of farmland in Argentina through farm operator Foodomonte. The company's strategy is a justifiable one given that the Saudi government has decided to focus on acquiring farmland abroad rather than invest capital in domestic farming projects. However, with a wave of countries now introducing land reform legislation, the strategy may need to be altered in the coming years.
Poultry prices in Saudi Arabia have significantly risen in the past year and are expected to stay elevated in the medium term. This is owing to insufficient production growth in the country as well as declining output from major producers such as France and Brazil, from which the country's poultry imports come. Also, local poultry farmers have complained of increasing production costs linked to high feed costs.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Saudi Arabia Agricultural SWOT
Saudi Arabia Political SWOT
Saudi Arabia Economic SWOT
Saudi Arabia Business Environment SWOT
Supply Demand Analysis
Saudi Arabia Livestock Outlook
Table: Saudi Arabia Poultry Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: Saudi Arabia Poultry Production & Consumption
Saudi Arabia Grain Outlook
Table: Saudi Arabia Rice Consumption,2011-2016
Table: Saudi Arabia Wheat Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: Saudi Arabia Corn Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: Saudi Arabia Barley Consumption,2011-2016
Table: Saudi Arabia Rice Consumption
Table: Saudi Arabia Wheat Production & Consumption
Table: Saudi Arabia Corn Production & Consumption
Table: Saudi Arabia Barley Consumption
Saudi Arabia Dairy Outlook
Table : Saudi Arabia Milk Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table : Saudi Arabia Butter Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table : Saudi Arabia Cheese Consumption,2011-2016
Table : Saudi Arabia Whole Milk Powder Consumption,2011-2016
Table: Saudi Arabia Milk Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Table: Saudi Arabia Butter Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Table: Saudi Arabia Cheese Consumption,2008-2012
Table: Saudi Arabia Whole Milk Powder Consumption,2008-2012
Company Profiles
SADAFCO
Commodity Price Analysis
Monthly Grains Update
Corn
Rice
Soybean
Wheat
Monthly Softs Update
Cocoa To Regain Some Poise
Coffee To Continue Cooling
Palm Oil Uptrend To Hold
Sugar Upside Is Limited
Industry Forecast
Food
Consumer Outlook
Food
Table: Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts,2008-2016
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts,2008-2016
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format
Trade
Table: Trade Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts,2008-2016
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Saudi Arabia - Economic Activity
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- SADAFCO
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