Namibia Autos Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, February 2012, Pages: 34
Business Monitor International's Namibia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Namibia's automotive industry.
Namibia's autos sector benefits from the fact the country is one of the wealthiest in Sub-Saharan Africa on a per capita income basis. BMI expects that Namibian consumers will continue to play an important role in the country's growth. It is expecting real GDP growth in Namibia of 4.5% in 2012, representing a slight acceleration on the 2011 rate, which BMI estimates to be at 4.2%. In the years ahead, it is forecasting an average growth rate of just under 5.0%.
The country has one of the highest per capita incomes in the Southern Africa region (third, behind Botswana and South Africa), and as such it also has the third highest rate of car ownership per 1,000 people, showing a direct correlation between private wealth and the autos industry. On the downside, there is no mass vehicle production, leaving imports to account for both new and second-hand sales.
New vehicle sales in Namibia reached record highs in October 2011, as passenger car supplies continued to improve in the wake of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, and business spending buoyed the commercial vehicle (CV) segment. Total vehicle sales of 1,164 units, the second highest in 15 years, according to data from Namibian financial services firm Simonis Storm Securities (SSS), were 15.6% higher year-on-year (y-o-y) and 8.2% higher than September, keeping sales on track to meet BMI's forecast for sales of over 11,700 units in 2011.
BMI had previously noted that a recovery in the supply chain for Japanese carmakers would ensure that passenger car sales improved in the latter months of the year, after September's 5% y-o-y increase marked the first positive growth after five months of contraction. This played out dramatically in October, as car sales were 23.2% higher y-o-y and 10.8% higher than September. The link to the Japanese recovery was evident in Toyota Motor's increased share of the passenger car market, which rose from 16% in September to 23% in October. Seemingly, this growth came at the expense of German rival Volkswagen, which saw its share slip from 31% in September to 29% in October, although this was still higher than the 25% held in August.
VW has, meanwhile, been looking to capitalise on the surge in heavy commercial vehicles with the launch of the new MAN TGS truck range in July, which it is supporting with after-sales services.
The Namibian government is now looking to China to support the development of its automotive manufacturing sector. Speaking at the Namibia-China Business Forum in July 2011, Under-secretary for Trade and Commerce Edward Kamboua said the industrialisation of China's economy was 'worth emulating' and wants to create more value-added businesses through joint ventures with Chinese There are already some parts producers in the Walvis Bay area with significant links to major international carmakers. Namibia Press and Tools, which is the area's oldest EPZ company, having been set up in 1996, won a contract in April 2011 to supply parts to Germany's BMW. As a subsidiary of Germany's Weser Metal Umformtechnik, all of its products are exported to Germany for sale to clients including Audi, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Opel, Bentley and Renault.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Table: Namibia Political SWOTs
Table: Namibia Economic SWOTs
Table: Namibia Business Environment SWOTs
Global Overview
Eurozone And EMs Pose Risks To 2012 Growth Outlook; US And Japan On The Rise
Passenger Car Sales (Units), Jan-December 2011
Replacement Growth?
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Autos Risk/Reward Ratings
Regional Overview
BMI Highlights Its Favourite Opportunities In Sub-Saharan Africa
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Table: Namibia - Economic Activity
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Namibia Automotives Historical Data & Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Market Overview
Company News Alert
JLR Investment Targets Increased Buying Power
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
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