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Estonia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, February 2012, Pages: 78
Business Monitor International's Estonia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Estonia's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
BMI View: Estonia’s pharmaceutical market will remain of marginal interest to multinationals given its small population and a modest growth outlook. The market is expected to post a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.07% in local currency terms through to 2016, with the following five years likely to have similar annual growth rates. Nevertheless, Estonia’s proximity to Western Europe will ensure the market continues to be supplied by leading foreign players.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
- Pharmaceuticals EUR244mn (US$340mn) in 2011 to EUR258mn (US$333mn) in 2012;
- +5.5% in local currency terms and -2.1% in US dollar terms.
- Healthcare: EUR940mn (US$1.31bn) in 2011 to EUR980mn (US$1.26bn) in 2012; +4.2% in local currency terms and -3.3% in US dollar terms..
- Medical devices: EUR109mn (US$151mn) in 2011 to EUR116mn (US$150mn) in 2012; +6.9% in local currency terms and -0.8% in US dollar terms.
Of the 20 key markets in Central snd Eastern Europe (CEE), Estonia is in ninth place in BMI’s Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) for Q212. Its overall score is 54.2 out of 100, just above the regional average of 53.0.
Key Trends And Developments:
- The Estonian government will provide subsidised discounts on about 30 new drugs in early 2012. It decided to give a 50-100% discount on prescription medicines for treatment of infertility, rheumatoid arthritis, schizophrenia and other conditions, the Ministry of Social Affairs said. According to a legislative amendment, doctors must write prescriptions on the basis on the active ingredient, while the pharmacist is required to recommend the cheapest drug as the first option to patients.
BMI Economic View:
Estonia’s real GDP growth forecast stands at 3.0% for 2012, though BMI has revised up our 2011 estimate to 8.0% on the back of another stellar quarterly performance in Q311, when economic growth reached 8.5% y-o-y. In 2012, BMI believes positive base effects following an extremely deep contraction in 2009 will help to boost real GDP growth.
BMI Political View:
While BMI remains positive about Estonia’s political outlook in 2012 – the country is among the most structurally stable of emerging markets worldwide – we highlight that its position as a eurozone member nonetheless poses risks to the country’s political risk profile. There are a number of potential sources of difficulty in 2012 emanating from domestic and international sources.
Estonia Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Estonia Political SWOT
Estonia Economic SWOT
Estonia Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: CEE Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Ratings, Q212
Estonia – Market Summary
Regional Harmonisation Efforts
Intellectual Property Regime
Table: Medicinal Products Reimbursed For Insured Patients, 2009-2010 (EURmn)
Table: Healthcare Expenditure By HIF, 2006-2010 (EURmn)
Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, 2008-2016
Key Growth Factors – Industry
Table: Overall Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016
Table: Governmental Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic
Table: Estonia Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Table: Prescription Drug Sales, 2008-2016
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Table: Patented Drug Sales, 2008-2016
Generic Drug Market Forecast
Table: Generic Drug Sales, 2008-2016
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: OTC Medicine Sales, 2008-2016
Medical Device Market Forecast
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators, 2008-2016
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade, 2008-2016
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Foreign Pharmaceutical Players
Table: Pharmacies And Pharmacy Market Ratios, 2004-2009
Merck & Co
Grindeks (incorporating Tallinn Pharmaceutical Plant)
Country Snapshot: Estonia Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2004
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components
- GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
- Merck & Co
- Grindeks (incorporating Tallinn Pharmaceutical Plant)
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