U.K. Prime RMBS Index Report Q4 2011: Unemployment Figures Hint That Collateral Performance May Weaken In H1 2012 Feb 12
Standard & Poors, February 2012
Abstract
Performance indicators showed signs of deterioration in Q4 2011 for the U.K. prime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) that Standard & Poor's Ratings Services rates. Overall, total delinquencies increased only slightly but macroeconomic factors, including GDP and unemployment, worsened. As the macroeconomic situation develops, we anticipate that collateral performance may weaken in H1 2012. U.K. GDP figures declined by 0.2% in Q4 2011indicating an increased risk of a near-term technical recession. There are also downside risks for the U.K. economy, linked to uncertainty on the depth and length of a potential European Economic and Monetary Union recession (see "Assessing The Severity Of The Eurozone Recession Is A Close Call," published on Jan. 31, 2012). However, we expect some, albeit low, GDP...
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