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Cameroon Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
Description:
Business Monitor International's Cameroon Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Cameroon's oil and gas industry.
BMI View: With declining production output and few new projects expected to come onstream over the next decade, the outlook for Cameroon’s upstream oil sector is rather erratic. Meanwhile, more efficient usage of associated gas – through the limitation of flaring – and the development of domestic resources will mean there is potential for booming growth in the upstream gas segment, which may see Cameroon generate significant LNG export revenues.
The main trends and developments BMI highlight in Cameroon’s Oil and Gas sector are:
- BMI expects growth in oil production to be somewhat irregular over the next decade with output estimated at 60,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2011, peaking at 87,000b/d in 2014 and 2015 before falling back to 78,000b/d in 2017, hitting 84,000b/d in 2018 and finally settling at around 76,000b/d in 2021. This chaotic growth is explained by limited project development and implies that each time new volumes come onstream, total output surges before slowly decreasing as a result of a decline in output from alreadyproducing fields.
- Meanwhile, consumption of crude is likely to rise at an average of 5.6% rate from 2011 to 2021. BMI anticipate consumption will rise from an estimated 30,000b/d in 2011, to hit 52,000b/d by 2021.
- BMI forecasts gas production will increase from 0.15bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to 2.54bcm by 2021, as the authorities and companies reduce the practice of flaring and start monetising associated gas resources. Gas production is to be boosted further by new projects which will have considerable associated gas production, such as Victoria Oil and Gas’ Logbaba project (6bcm). Gas output growth will be bolstered by domestic demand but also by export growth, notably in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with the proposed 4.8bcm LNG terminal in Kribi due to come onstream over the forecast period.
- Gas demand is set to rise at an average growth rate of 23.7% on the back of numerous infrastructure projects that will boost domestic consumption. The most notable of these projects is the 150 megawatt (MW) Kribi power plant. As a result, BMI see gas consumption rising from 0.06bcm in 2011 to 0.36bcm by 2021.
- Cameroon’s crude reserves are likely to continue declining as increased output results in high depletion rates. BMI see proven oil reserves falling from 200mn bbl in 2011 to 160mn bbl in 2021. The reserves-toproduction ratio will fall from little more than nine years to just under six. With regard to gas, the outlook is not as dire, as the potential for further discoveries offers a more stable outlook. BMI see reserves hovering at between 140bcm and 150bcm over the forecast period.
- In the downstream sector, the authorities have adopted a realistic approach to expansion. The government has ambitions to expand capacity at SoNaRa – the country’s only refinery located in Cape Limboh – from 42,200b/d to 70,300b/d. Furthermore, the facility will be upgraded so it can process Cameroonian heavy crude oil and not simply imported light grades.
Cameroon’s dependence on oil prices leads to high volatility in the country’s export revenues. BMIs anticipation of slower growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis, clearly pose a threat to global demand. As a result, BMI assume OPEC basket oil prices to fall from US$101.90 per barrel (bbl) in 2011 to US$97.50/bbl in 2012, thus creating a downside risk for the Cameroonian macroeconomic outlook.
BMI View: With declining production output and few new projects expected to come onstream over the next decade, the outlook for Cameroon’s upstream oil sector is rather erratic. Meanwhile, more efficient usage of associated gas – through the limitation of flaring – and the development of domestic resources will mean there is potential for booming growth in the upstream gas segment, which may see Cameroon generate significant LNG export revenues.
The main trends and developments BMI highlight in Cameroon’s Oil and Gas sector are:
- BMI expects growth in oil production to be somewhat irregular over the next decade with output estimated at 60,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2011, peaking at 87,000b/d in 2014 and 2015 before falling back to 78,000b/d in 2017, hitting 84,000b/d in 2018 and finally settling at around 76,000b/d in 2021. This chaotic growth is explained by limited project development and implies that each time new volumes come onstream, total output surges before slowly decreasing as a result of a decline in output from alreadyproducing fields.
- Meanwhile, consumption of crude is likely to rise at an average of 5.6% rate from 2011 to 2021. BMI anticipate consumption will rise from an estimated 30,000b/d in 2011, to hit 52,000b/d by 2021.
- BMI forecasts gas production will increase from 0.15bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to 2.54bcm by 2021, as the authorities and companies reduce the practice of flaring and start monetising associated gas resources. Gas production is to be boosted further by new projects which will have considerable associated gas production, such as Victoria Oil and Gas’ Logbaba project (6bcm). Gas output growth will be bolstered by domestic demand but also by export growth, notably in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with the proposed 4.8bcm LNG terminal in Kribi due to come onstream over the forecast period.
- Gas demand is set to rise at an average growth rate of 23.7% on the back of numerous infrastructure projects that will boost domestic consumption. The most notable of these projects is the 150 megawatt (MW) Kribi power plant. As a result, BMI see gas consumption rising from 0.06bcm in 2011 to 0.36bcm by 2021.
- Cameroon’s crude reserves are likely to continue declining as increased output results in high depletion rates. BMI see proven oil reserves falling from 200mn bbl in 2011 to 160mn bbl in 2021. The reserves-toproduction ratio will fall from little more than nine years to just under six. With regard to gas, the outlook is not as dire, as the potential for further discoveries offers a more stable outlook. BMI see reserves hovering at between 140bcm and 150bcm over the forecast period.
- In the downstream sector, the authorities have adopted a realistic approach to expansion. The government has ambitions to expand capacity at SoNaRa – the country’s only refinery located in Cape Limboh – from 42,200b/d to 70,300b/d. Furthermore, the facility will be upgraded so it can process Cameroonian heavy crude oil and not simply imported light grades.
Cameroon’s dependence on oil prices leads to high volatility in the country’s export revenues. BMIs anticipation of slower growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis, clearly pose a threat to global demand. As a result, BMI assume OPEC basket oil prices to fall from US$101.90 per barrel (bbl) in 2011 to US$97.50/bbl in 2012, thus creating a downside risk for the Cameroonian macroeconomic outlook.
Contents:
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Cameroon Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Cameroon Energy Market Overview
Table: Cameroon – Upstream Projects Database
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil and Gas Reserves
Table: Cameroon Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts , 2009-2016
Oil Supply and Demand
Gas Supply and Demand
Revenues/Import Costs
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Cameroon
Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Composite Scores
Table: Africa Regional Ratings
Upstream Scores
Table: Africa Regional Upstream Ratings
Downstream Scores
Table: Africa Regional Downstream Ratings
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players – Cameroon Energy Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing and Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Perenco
Victoria Oil & Gas – Summary
Total – Summary
Sterling Energy – Summary
Petronas – Summary
Noble Energy – Summary
Bowleven Oil And Gas – Summary
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
SWOT Analysis
Cameroon Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Cameroon Energy Market Overview
Table: Cameroon – Upstream Projects Database
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil and Gas Reserves
Table: Cameroon Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts , 2009-2016
Oil Supply and Demand
Gas Supply and Demand
Revenues/Import Costs
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Cameroon
Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Composite Scores
Table: Africa Regional Ratings
Upstream Scores
Table: Africa Regional Upstream Ratings
Downstream Scores
Table: Africa Regional Downstream Ratings
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players – Cameroon Energy Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing and Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Perenco
Victoria Oil & Gas – Summary
Total – Summary
Sterling Energy – Summary
Petronas – Summary
Noble Energy – Summary
Bowleven Oil And Gas – Summary
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
Companies Mentioned
- Perenco
- Victoria Oil & Gas
- Total
- Sterling Energy
- Petronas
- Noble Energy
- Victoria Oil & Gas
- Total
- Sterling Energy
- Petronas
- Noble Energy
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