Equatorial Guinea Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, February 2012, Pages: 49
Business Monitor International's Equatorial Guinea Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Equatorial Guinea's oil and gas industry.
BMI View: Crude output will remain fairly steady as Noble Energy’s new Aseng and Alen projects come onstream, offsetting declines in production from Equatorial Guinea’s flagship Zafiro field. After 2015, oil production will fall rapidly without significant new investment and exploration. While some significant new gas discoveries have recently been made, BMI do not expect the development of a second Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) train before 2016-2017. Without new investment, production will begin to fall, eating into export volumes.
The main trends and developments BMI highlight in Equatorial Guinea’s Oil and Gas sector are:
- BMI expects oil production to remain steady at approximately 280,000 barrels per day (b/d) from 2011 to 2016, as new production from Noble Energy’s Aseng and Alen developments comes onstream. This will offset declining output from the flagship Zafiro field.
- Consumption of crude is likely to rise steadily, albeit from a small base, as GDP per head remains very low and vital downstream infrastructure is lacking.
- BMI estimates that gas production peaked at 6.63bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011. BMI anticipate gas output will then begin to fall unless more investment is made in existing fields or new prospects, such as Ophir Energy’s Block R discoveries, are brought onstream. Based on a production decline rate of just 2%, output is set to fall to approximately 6.0bcm by 2016.
- Gas demand is set to rise steadily on the back of solid economic growth. BMI forecast average growth of 4.4% from 2011 to 2015. BMI therefore anticipate consumption will rise from an estimated 1.71bcm in 2011, to hit 2.18bcm by 2016.
- Despite the government’s massive gas reserves upgrade, BMI do not believe a new LNG facility will materialise before 2016-2017. This is largely due to a shortage of adequate supply and the fact there are no suitable markets.
- The development of a new 22,000b/d refinery at Mbini looks to be one step closer to a final investment decision (FID) after the government opened the project to tender in February 2011. Nevertheless, BMI have not included the refinery in their forecasts as, without a firm commitment from the government, it is extremely difficult to establish when the facility will come onstream. BMI assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2011 of US$101.90 per barrel (bbl), falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012. Global GDP in 2011 was forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010 reflecting slowing growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Equatorial Guinea Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Africa Overview: Production And Consumption To Bounce Back
Equatorial Guinea Energy Market Overview
Table: Equatorial Guinea – Upstream Projects Table
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Service Stations
Oil Terminals
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Composite Scores
Table: Africa Regional Ratings
Upstream Scores
Table: Africa Regional Upstream
Equatorial Guinea Upstream Rating – Overview
Equatorial Guinea Upstream Rating – Overview
Table: Africa Regional Downstream
Equatorial Guinea Downstream Rating – Overview
Equatorial Guinea Downstream Rating – Overview
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players – Equatorial Guinea Energy Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Player
Company Monitor
Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report Q1
GEPetrol
ExxonMobil
Marathon Oil
Hess – Summary
Noble Energy – Summary
Gazprom Neft – Summary
Repsol YPF – Summary
PA Resources – Summary
Total – Summary
Roc Oil – Summary
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
- GEPetrol
- ExxonMobil
- Marathon Oil
- Hess
- Noble Energy
- Gazprom Neft
- Repsol YPF
- PA Resources
- Total
- Roc Oil
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