Gabon Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, February 2012, Pages: 50
Business Monitor International's Gabon Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Gabon's oil and gas industry.
BMI View: Gabon must tempt new investment in exploration and production or face a rapid decline in output as fields mature. BMI expect oil volumes to fall from 229,170b/d in 2011, to 217,890b/d by 2016. The government does appear to be making efforts to improve the country's upstream environment by establishing more flexible licensing terms and a favourable tax code. However, the industry continues to be dogged by labour disputes over the level of foreign involvement. This may scare potential investors away and thereby quicken the rate of decline, raising downside risks to their forecast.
The main trends and developments BMI highlight for Gabon's Oil and Gas sector are:
- BMI expects oil production to fall from 229,170 barrels per day (b/d) in 2011, to 217,890b/d in 2016, as fields mature. That slow rate of decline may prove to be too optimistic if labour disputes continues and no new exploration and production (E&P) investment emerges.
- Nevertheless, BMI have remained optimistic and assume new discoveries will slow the rate of decline in oil production over the decade, with output set to fall below 200,000b/d for the first time in 2021.
- BMI expect new investment in exploration to be driven by subsalt successes in areas with similar geology on both sides of the Atlantic. BMI anticipates new discoveries could add approximately 300mn barrels (bbl) of oil reserves by 2021, or a little less than 10% of current resources.
- Consumption of crude is likely to rise steadily, albeit from a low base. BMI expect demand to rise from 16,680b/d in 2011 to 23,250b/d by 2021. This level remains within the limits of the 24,000b/d Port Gentil refinery; however, concrete steps to expand capacity are likely to take shape towards the end of the forecast period in anticipation of higher demand.
- BMI estimates gas production will continue to rise in line with consumption over the next decade. Indeed, the government is likely to increase the use of gas in power generation and industry now that basic infrastructure is in place to harness and transport associated gas volumes to the main consuming markets. As demand rises, there is likely to be a gradual fall in the amount of gas lost through flaring which could push marketed volumes to as much as 0.274bn cubic metres (bcm) by 2021.
- The ongoing dispute between the government and local union ONEP remains the most significant risk to their forecast. At the time of writing, ONEP has returned to the negotiating table, avoiding a second strike, but no settlement had been reached. The ongoing dispute is damaging Gabon's upstream business environment, making a speedy settlement essential. However, the government will have to steer a very difficult course and will have to listen to the concerns of the powerful ONEP union while ensuring it does not alienate foreign oil companies through reactionary and populist regulatory reform.
In this report BMI assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2011 of US$101.90/bbl, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012. Global GDP in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010 reflecting slowing growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Gabon Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Africa Overview: Production And Consumption To Bounce Back
Gabon Energy Market Overview
Table: Gabon – Upstream Projects Database
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply and Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Gabon Oil and Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Composite Scores
Table: Africa Regional Ratings
Upstream Scores
Table: Africa Regional Upstream
Gabon Upstream Rating – Overview
Downstream Scores
Table: Africa Regional Downstream
Gabon Downstream Rating – Overview
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Gabon Energy Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing and Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Addax Petroleum
Total Gabon – Summary
Shell Gabon – Summary
Maurel & Prom – Summary
VAALCO Energy – Summary
Perenco – Summary
Eni – Summary
Tullow Oil – Summary
Petrobras – Summary
Panoro – Summary
Harvest – Summary
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
- Addax Petroleum
- Total Gabon
- Shell Gabon
- Maurel & Prom
- VAALCO Energy
- Perenco
- Eni
- Tullow Oil
- Petrobras
- Panoro
- Harvest,
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