- Language: English
- 748 Pages
- Published: November 2012
- Region: Global
Ghana Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
- Published: February 2012
- Region: Ghana
- 47 Pages
- Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International's Ghana Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Ghana's oil and gas industry.
BMI View: Ghana's nascent oil and gas industry is set to undergo a transformation over the next five years as the Jubilee and Greater Tweneboa projects are ramped-up to full production. Appraisal of other oil and gas prospects is likely to gather pace and BMI expect upside risks to both their reserves and production forecasts over long term. Gas production is also likely to gather pace once adequate infrastructure is in place. This will help meet rapidly rising demand and reduce dependence on imported Nigerian volumes.
The main trends and developments BMI highlight for Ghana's oil and gas sector are:
- Ghana's reserves are likely to continue to grow at a rapid rate as the appraisal of the Greater Tweneboa, Southeastern Jubilee and West Cape Three Points prospects continues. The end-2010 Oil & Gas Journal (OGJ) annual reserves and production survey attributes 660mn bbl of proven oil reserves to the country but BMI is more bullish. BMI estimate 2011 reserves of 714mn barrels (bbl), rising to 1.2bn bbl by 2016.
- Production from the Tullow Oil-operated Jubilee field was expected to reach its initial target of 120,000b/d in late 2011 but the field is currently producing only around 80,000 b/d due to technical difficulties. These issues are not expected to have any impact on field resources and production is expected to ramp-up to 120,000b/d later in 2012.
- Oil consumption is set to rise rapidly on the back of strong economic growth. BMI expect demand to have hit 69,000b/d in 2011, rising to 99,000b/d in 2016. Imports of refined products will therefore rise in the short and medium term as refinery capacity is restricted to 45,000b/d. BMI expect this capacity to rise to as much as 250,000b/d over the long term, but new facilities are unlikely to be brought onstream much before 2016.
- BMI expect net oil exports to grow from 8,260 barrels per day (b/d) in 2011 to 126,000b/d in 2016.
- An US$800mn loan from China Development Bank is set to boost midstream gas infrastructure capacity and could facilitate a gradual increase in gas production over the coming years – as demand from power generation gathers pace. BMI expect gas production to rise from 1.5bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2012 to 2.6bcm in 2016.
- Demand may have hit 1.2bcm in 2011 and could rise to 3.2bcm in 2016. BMI therefore expect net imports through the West African Gas Pipeline (WAGP) to hit 1.2bcm in 2011 before falling gradually – in line with a rise in domestic production – to 0.7bcm in 2016.
In this report BMI assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2011 of US$101.90/bbl, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012. Global GDP in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010, reflecting slowing growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
BMI Industry View
Ghana Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Africa Overview: Production And Consumption To Bounce Back
Ghana Energy Market Overview
Ghana – Upstream Projects Database
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Table: Ghana Oil and Gas Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Africa Regional Ratings
Table: Africa Regional Upstream
Ghana Upstream Rating – Overview
Ghana Upstream Rating – Overview
Table: Africa Regional Downstream
Ghana Downstream Rating – Overview
Table: Key Players – Ghana Energy Sector
Licensing and Regulation
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Player
Lukoil – Summary
Eni – Summary
Hess – Summary
Anadarko – Summary
Tap Oil – Summary
Others – Summary
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Tullow Oil
- Kosmos Energy
- Tap Oil