Pakistan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2012
- ID: 2088108
- February 2012
- Region: Pakistan
- 94 Pages
- Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International's Pakistan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Pakistan's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
BMI View: Despite the fact a significant number of multinationals are present in Pakistan, and the country's significant market potential, the leading international firms play a minimal role in the local pharmaceutical market – largely because of the unfavourable operating conditions. Problems include unreliable energy supply and security risks, as well as issues such as a poor drug approvals process and the weak enforcement of patent laws. The devolution of the Ministry of Health (MoH) and the disharmonisation of drug regulation will lead to further regulatory inefficiencies and more complex drug registration procedures for drugmakers, raising their operational costs and further suppressing drug company activity in Pakistan.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
Pharmaceuticals: PKR171.20bn (US$1.98bn) in 2011 to PRK190.28bn (US$2.07bn) in 2012; +11.1% in local currency terms and +4.4% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: PKR456.48bn (US$5.29bn) in 2011 to PKR520.16bn (US$5.66bn) in 2012; +14.0% in local currency terms and +7.0% in US dollar terms.
Medical devices: PKR35.14bn (US$407mn) in 2011 to PKR40.86bn (US$444mn) in 2012; +16.3% in local currency terms and +9.2% in US dollar terms.
In BMI's Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) for Q212, Pakistan ranks 16th of the 18 markets in the regional matrix, scoring a total pharmaceutical business environment score of 39.5 out of 100, below the regional average score of 53.7. Industry and country reward scores are weighted and combined to form the rewards component of the rating system. Pakistan's score for the quarter is 42 out of 100, below the regional average of 51. Industry and country risks are weighted and combined to form the risks component of the rating system. Pakistan's score for the quarter is unchanged at 36, which is among the lowest scores in the region and significantly below the average of 53.
Key Trends & Developments:
- Leaders of Pakistan's pharmaceutical industry have condemned the cabinet's recent unanimous decision to grant Most Favoured Nation (MFN) trading status to India. While the decision will benefit Indian trade to Pakistan, including the export of medicines to Pakistan - ultimately enforcing competitive pressure on the local pharmaceutical industry, BMI believes the agreement will be of significant benefit to patients, improving their access to affordable medicines.
- BMI believes the creation of six Drug Regulatory Authorities and the replication of operations by the authorities will create inefficiencies in the drug approvals process in Pakistan, which will not sit well with local or multinational drugmakers. Furthermore, the shift from one regulatory authority to six will lead to more bureaucracy, increasing drugmakers' operational costs.
- In January 2012, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani stated that Pakistan was committed to eradicating polio by the end of 2012 and would use all resources to rid the country of the disease - Pakistan registered a record 197 fresh polio cases in 2011. The World Health Organization has assured Pakistan of its full support in eradicating polio, hepatitis, and dengue fever from the country.
BMI Economic View:
BMI's expects manufacturing activity to recover in the current fiscal year following a lull in FY2010/11 (July-June). The broader economy is set to recover and record 3.8% real GDP growth (from 2.4% in 2011), as conditions for private consumption continue to improve, boosting demand conditions for manufacturers. Business cost pressures are also likely to ease in line with cooling wholesale price inflation and lower borrowing costs. Having said that, BMI maintains that the pickup in activity should be limited by the country's long-running energy crisis.
BMI Political View:
The fundamental causes of violence in Karachi will remain a long-term threat, even if the authorities are able to establish law and order in Pakistan's most populous city. For the foreseeable future, the government's reputation will be tainted by the violence. However, BMI maintains its view that the collapse of the government is unlikely. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Pakistan Pharmaceutical Industry SWOT
Pakistan Political SWOT
Pakistan Economic SWOT
Pakistan Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings, Q212
Pakistan – Market Summary
Intellectual Property Regime
Industry Trends And Developments
Non Communicable Diseases
Public Health Developments
Research And Development
Industry Forecast Scenario
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Key Growth Factors – Industry
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic
Pakistan – Economic Activity
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016
Generic Drug Market Forecast
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Medical Device Market Forecast
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2008-2016
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Table: 2008 Financial Snapshot Of Pakistani Drugmakers Listed On The Karachi Stock Exchange (US$mn)
Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry
Foreign Pharmaceutical Industry
Recent Pharmaceutical Sector Developments
Pharmaceutical Distribution Sector
Efroze Chemical Industries
Leading Multinational Manufacturers
Country Snapshot: Pakistan Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education and Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components