United Arab Emirates Shipping Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, February 2012, Pages: 137
Business Monitor International's United Arab Emirates Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on United Arab Emirates's shipping industry.
The UAE is set for another year of steady yet relatively uninspiring growth through 2012, with real GDP forecast to expand by 3.0%. This follows an estimated 3.3% rate of expansion posted in 2011. Broadly speaking, the same problems that have been weighing on the economy since 2009 look set to continue over the coming quarters, with weakness in the domestic real estate market, anaemic credit growth and ongoing deleveraging in the private sector tempering our near-term outlook. Our real GDP growth forecast for the coming year is slightly below consensus; however, this is largely a product of BMI's relatively more pessimistic outlook on the health of the global economy.
The outlook for the UAE's ports in 2012 is more upbeat, benefiting from their role as transhipment hubs. Strong growth is forecast by BMI at all of the emirates' major ports despite the headwinds facing the global economy, though we project that this growth rate will slow over our forecast period to 2016. The country's ports are proving themselves resilient in the face of increasing regional competition in the Gulf, with the Port of Jebel Ali announcing a capacity expansion to be completed over the mid term.
Headline Industry Data
- Jebel Ali and Port Rashid's tonnage throughput is forecast to grow by 7.2% in 2012 and to average 5.9% through to 2016.
- Sharjah container throughput (KCT and SCT) is forecast to grow by 6.7% in 2012, averaging 5.5% over the medium term.
- Jebel Ali container throughput is forecast to grow by 10.9% in 2012, following estimated growth of 11.9% in 2011. Through to 2016, we expect growth to average 8.5%.
- Total trade real growth is forecast at 9.0% in 2012 and to average 7.2% through to 2016. Key Industry Trends
Jebel Ali Announces Further Expansion Plans, Securing Gulf Transhipment Crown BMI believes that the DP World flagship facility of Jebel Ali in Dubai will remain the premier transhipment hub for the Gulf region, even in the face of increasing competition as the other countries of the GCC invest in upgraded facilities of their own. The container throughput of the GCC countries is growing rapidly, though BMI wonders if the growth is rapid enough to secure sufficient business for all of the projects scheduled to come online by 2016.
HPH Signs Deal To Develop Container Terminal At Ajman Port Hong Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa's terminals operating division, Hutchison Port Holdings (HPH), signed a deal with the Ajman Port Authority in November 2011 to construct and manage a container terminal at the UAE's Port of Ajman. Under the agreement, HPH will establish a company to operate the container terminal for a concession period of 10 years. The port would become the 52nd in HPH's global terminal portfolio, which covers 26 countries. However, the company has not disclosed details of the investment it plans to make in the facility. According to John Meredith, the group managing director of HPH, the deal will allow the company to modernise the port and improve its competitiveness in support of the Ajman Emirate's development.
Emirates Shipping Line Attracted By Intra-Asia's Short- And Long-Term Outlook UAE-based shipping firm Emirates Shipping Line is expanding its exposure to intra-Asia, buying slots on a recently launched route connecting Chinese, South Korean and Indian ports. The company is not alone in its desire to increase its coverage of intra-Asia, as lines attracted by the trade route's short- and long-term benefits continue to flock to it. Key Risks The key risks to our outlook for the UAE come from the continued political unrest in the Middle East.
The Arab Spring has not spread to the emirates, but neighbouring Bahrain has been affected and nowhere appears completely immune. BMI considers any serious disruption to trade in the UAE to be an outlying scenario however. Likewise, were Iran to follow through its threats to close the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping, then there would be considerable downside risk to UAE ports on the Gulf, and upside risk to the Sharjah terminal of Khorfakkan, which lies outside the Strait on the Arabian Sea. BMI's core view is that this will not happen, however.
SWOT Analysis
United Arab Emirates Shipping SWOT
United Arab Emirates Political SWOT
United Arab Emirates Economic SWOT
United Arab Emirates Business Environment SWOT
Global Shipping Overview
Container Shipping
Replay Of 2009 Threatens As Carriers Face Twin Threats Of Declining Demand And Overcapacity
Overcapacity And Declining Demand To Collide, Asia-Europe Most Exposed
Liner Strategies Indicate Carriers Preparing For The Worst
What Is Wan Hai Lines Doing Right?
Asia-Europe Landbridge To Take Market Share, But Not Usurp Shipping
Container Shipping Must Meet Green Challenge Now
Dry Bulk
Dry Bulk Faces Bleak 2012, Chinese Slowdown Threatens Sector Already In Troubled Waters
Possibility Of Chinese Slowdown Presents Real Risk To Dry Bulk Shipping
One Vale Mega-Vessel Calls To China, Remains Unclear If Rest Will Follow
Dry Bulk Lines Suffering; Another Chinese Firm Withholds Charter Payments
Oversized Dry Bulk Fleet To Continue Growing
Liquid Bulk
Liquid Bulk Survival Tactics Deployed In Force In 2012
2012 Outlook For Crude Oil Tankers Remains Poor
Frontline 2012 To Be Consolidating Force In Supertanker Sector
Industry Trends And Developments
UAE Container Shipping Market Overview
Table: United Arab Emirates – Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Industry Forecast
Sharjah Terminals Throughput Overview
Jebel Ali Throughput Overview
Table: Major Port Data – Throughput, 2008-2016
Trade
Table: Trade Overview, 2007-2016
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Table: UAE's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Table: UAE's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Company Profiles
United Arab Shipping Company (UASC)
Gulf Energy Maritime
Abu Dhabi National Tanker Company
Gulf Navigation Holding
Gulftainer
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
CMA CGM
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
Hapag-Lloyd
APL
Evergreen Line
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Container)
- United Arab Shipping Company (UASC)
- Gulf Energy Maritime
- Abu Dhabi National Tanker Company
- Gulf Navigation Holding
- Gulftainer
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
- CMA CGM
- COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
- Hapag-Lloyd
- APL
- Evergreen Line
- China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
- Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
- Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Container)
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