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Market and Product Forecasts: HIV - Rising prevalence and novel STRs boost sales in the US and Europe Product Image

Market and Product Forecasts: HIV - Rising prevalence and novel STRs boost sales in the US and Europe

  • ID: 2094830
  • February 2012
  • Region: Europe, United States
  • 63 pages
  • Datamonitor

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Abbott Laboratories
  • First Data Corporation
  • GlaxoSmithKline Plc
  • Hutchison 3G UK Limited
  • Johnson & Johnson
  • MORE

This report explores key issues in HIV across the US and five major EU markets (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK). It contains an assessment of key HIV drugs, a discussion of HIV market dynamics, and a 10-year patient-based sales forecast.

Scope:

- Datamonitor’s first HIV market assessment based on patient-based forecasting (PBF) methodology.
- Analysis of HIV market dynamics across the US and five major EU markets, supported by a large physician survey and insights of key opinion leaders.
- Detailed sales forecasts for the major antiretroviral classes, molecules, and brands in the US and each of the five major EU markets.

Highlights:

- Despite cost-containment efforts and an increasing threat of generic incursion, Datamonitor expects the HIV market in the US and five major EU markets to grow to $16.5bn in 2021. Major growth drivers are a continuously rising HIV prevalent population and the launch of new pipeline drugs, particularly of new single-tablet regimens (STRs).
- Following strong growth in the first half of the forecast period (2011–16), Datamonitor expects patent expirations of key antiretrovirals and a leveling off READ MORE >

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Abbott Laboratories
  • First Data Corporation
  • GlaxoSmithKline Plc
  • Hutchison 3G UK Limited
  • Johnson & Johnson
  • MORE

OVERVIEW
Catalyst
Summary
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Strategic scoping and focus
Datamonitor key findings
Related reports
MARKET DEFINITION
Market definition for this disease
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Methodology flow
Patent expiries
New product launches
Additional forecast methodology
MARKET OVERVIEW AND CONTEXT
Current and future market dynamics overview
New product launches drive further growth in an already mature HIV market
A strong pipeline and major patent expiries will drive transformation of the HIV market
The US is set to remain the largest HIV market, but high levels of generic incursion will limit growth
Increasing HIV prevalent population and new product launches drive growth in the five major EU markets
PRODUCT FORECASTS
Overview
Currently marketed HIV drugs will give way to newer more convenient products and generics
Single-tablet regimens will be a key growth driver of the HIV market
Truvada (tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine; Gilead Sciences)
Forecast assumptions
Truvada forecast 2011–21
Atripla (tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine/efavirenz; Gilead Sciences/Bristol-Myers Squibb)
Forecast assumptions
Atripla forecast 2011–21
Complera (tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine/rilpivirine; Gilead Sciences/Tibotec/Johnson & Johnson)
Forecast assumptions
Complera forecast 2011–21
Reyataz (atazanavir; Bristol-Myers Squibb)
Forecast assumptions
Reyataz forecast 2011–21
Prezista (darunavir; Tibotec/Johnson & Johnson)
Forecast assumptions
Prezista forecast 2011–21
Isentress (raltegravir; Merck & Co.)
Forecast assumptions
Isentress forecast 2011–21
Quad (tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine/elvitegravir/cobicistat; Gilead Sciences)
Forecast assumptions
Quad forecast 2011–21
572-Trii (lamivudine/abacavir/dolutegravir; Shionogi & Co./ViiV Healthcare)
Forecast assumptions
572-Trii forecast 2011–21
Dolutegravir (S/GSK-1349572; Shionogi & Co./ViiV Healthcare)
Forecast assumptions
Dolutegravir forecast 2011–21
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Websites
Datamonitor reports
APPENDIX
Contributing experts
Conferences attended
Forecast methodology
Volume and value forecast methodology
Price and compliance assumptions
Physician sample breakdown
Report methodology
TABLES
Table: Summary of therapeutic classes in HIV by Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical code,
Table: Patent expiry dates for key marketed brands in HIV in the US, 2011–
Table: Patent expiry dates for key marketed brands in HIV in the five major EU markets, 2011–
Table: Estimated launch dates for key late-stage pipeline products and marketed brands in HIV in the US and five major EU markets, 2011-
Table: Key branded sales for HIV in the US, by brand ($m), 2011–
Table: Key branded sales for HIV in the five major EU markets, by brand ($m), 2011–
Table: Key HIV product sales in the US and five major EU markets ($m), 2011–
Table: Truvada (tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine: Gilead Sciences) sales for HIV, by country, ($m), 2011–
Table: Atripla (tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine/efavirenz: Gilead Sciences/Bristol-Myers Squibb) sales for HIV, by country, ($m), 2011–
Table: Complera (tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine/rilpivirine: Gilead Sciences/Tibotec/Johnson & Johnson) sales for HIV, by country ($m), 2011–
Table: Reyataz (atazanavir: Bristol-Myers Squibb) sales for HIV, by country, ($m), 2011–
Table: Prezista (darunavir: Tibotec/Johnson & Johnson) sales for HIV, by country ($m), 2011–
Table: Isentress (raltegravir; Merck & Co.) sales for HIV, by country, ($m), 2011–
Table: Quad (tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine/elvitegravir/cobicistat; Gilead Sciences) sales for HIV, by country ($m), 2011–
Table: 572-Trii (lamivudine/abacavir/dolutegravir; ViiV Healthcare) sales for HIV, by country ($m), 2011–
Table: Dolutegravir (S/GSK-1349572; Shionogi & Co./ViiV Healthcare) sales for HIV, by country ($m), 2011–
Table: Infectious disease sample breakdown, 2011
FIGURES
Figure: Patient-based forecast methodology for HIV,
Figure: Timeline: approval/launch dates of key HIV pipeline drugs, 2011–
Figure: Impact of key events on the HIV market, 2011–
Figure: HIV market forecast across the US and five major EU markets, by country ($bn), 2011–
Figure: HIV market forecast across the US and five major EU markets, by drug class ($bn), 2011–
Figure: HIV market forecast for the US ($m), 2011–
Figure: HIV market forecast for the US, by drug class ($m), 2011–
Figure: HIV market forecast for the five major EU markets, by country ($m), 2011–
Figure: HIV market forecast for the five major EU markets, by class ($m), 2011–
Figure: HIV sales in the US and five major EU markets, by product ($bn), 2011–
Figure: HIV sales in the US and five major EU markets, by drug type ($bn), 2011–
Figure: Single-tablet regimen versus other antiretroviral HIV sales in the US and five major EU markets ($bn), 2011–
Figure: Single-tablet regimen HIV sales in the US and five major EU markets ($m), 2011–
Figure: Truvada (tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine: Gilead Sciences) sales for HIV, by country, ($m), 2011–
Figure: Atripla (tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine/efavirenz: Gilead Sciences/Bristol-Myers Squibb) sales for HIV, by country ($m), 2011–
Figure: Complera (tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine/rilpivirine: Gilead Sciences/Tibotec/Johnson & Johnson) sales for HIV, by country ($m), 2011–
Figure: Reyataz (atazanavir: Bristol-Myers Squibb) sales for HIV, by country ($m), 2011–
Figure: Reyataz (atazanavir: Bristol-Myers Squibb) and Reyataz/cobicistat (atazanavir/cobicistat: Bristol-Myers Squibb/Gilead Sciences) sales for HIV ($m), 2011–
Figure: Prezista (darunavir: Tibotec/Johnson & Johnson) sales for HIV, by country ($m), 2011–
Figure: Prezista (darunavir; Tibotec/Johnson & Johnson) and Prezista/cobicistat (darunavir/cobicistat; Tibotec/Johnson & Johnson/Gilead Sciences) sales for HIV ($m), 2011–
Figure: Isentress (raltegravir; Merck & Co.) sales for HIV, by country ($m), 2011–
Figure: Quad (tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine/elvitegravir/cobicistat; Gilead Sciences) sales for HIV, by country ($m), 2011–
Figure: 572-Trii (lamivudine/abacavir/dolutegravir; ViiV Healthcare) sales for HIV, by country ($m), 2011–
Figure: Dolutegravir (S/GSK-1349572; Shionogi & Co./ViiV Healthcare) sales for HIV, by country ($m), 2011–



- Abbott Laboratories
- First Data Corporation
- GlaxoSmithKline Plc
- Hutchison 3G UK Limited
- Johnson & Johnson

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