Indonesia Food and Drink Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, March 2012, Pages: 102
We continue to like Indonesia as a regional outperformer, with countries more dependent on external trade, such as Singapore, feeling the effect of a protracted slowdown in exports. In the face of growing external headwinds, we remain reasonably optimistic about Indonesia's domestic demand prospects given its domestic demand-driven resilience. The Indonesian consumer remains in good shape, supported by the demand positives of strong consumer confidence, rising tourist arrival growth and healthy retail sales growth. Looking over the long term, robust macroeconomic fundamentals, an enticing demographic profile and the spread of organised retail underpin a highly dynamic consumer growth story in Indonesia.
Headline Industry Data
- Food consumption growth for 2012 = +7.0%; CAGR forecast to 2016 = +7.7%
- Alcoholic drinks sales growth for 2012 = +11.2%; CAGR forecast to 2016 = +9.2%
- Soft drinks sales growth for 2012 = +12.1%; CAGR forecast to 2016 = +9.4%
- Mass grocery retail sales growth for 2012 = +12.3%; CAGR forecast to 2016 = +11.7%
Key Industry Trends
Tapping Into The Fast-Food Potential – Around four years after setting foot in Indonesia, Burger King now operates around 30 outlets in the country. The company clearly sees a lot more room for growth in Indonesia and plans to introduce between 10 and 15 new stores in 2012. The convenience and value factor associated with fast-food will garner growing popularity among the local consumers, which are increasingly equipped with the purchasing power to splurge on such indulgence foods. The exciting dynamics in the Indonesian fast-food market are clearly attracting the sights of multinational fast-food companies. While fast-food chain operators McDonald's and Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) were once pretty much the dominant foreign fast-food operators in Indonesia, the playing field has widened over the past few years with the likes of Burger King and Subway coming in quite aggressively.
Retail A Big Attraction In Indonesia – Indonesian retailer Indomaret is set to open 1,000 new outlets throughout the country in 2012. The retailer expects to deliver 30% growth in total sales to IDR23.4trn (US$2.62bn) during 2012. As an ageing population weighs on the growth prospects of the Japanese mass grocery retail (MGR) sector, local convenience store retailer FamilyMart plans to open around 600 outlets in Indonesia and the Philippines. The retailer plans to have around 300 stores in each of these countries by 2015. Also, South Korean retailer Lotte Department Store plans to launch five new outlets in several cities in Indonesia by 2018. Locations for the new outlets are not disclosed, but the first outlet is scheduled to be opened by the end of 2012 in the Ciputra World mall.
Risk To Outlook
Global Headwinds Could Dampen Indonesia's Growth – We are becoming increasingly concerned that another global financial crisis could play out over the coming quarters given the ongoing problems facing the developed world and the unsustainable nature of China's growth boom. Should this scenario materialise, Indonesia's economic growth and consumer sentiment will inevitably suffer a hit, as was the case in late 2008. However, we do not believe the negative impact on growth would be as harsh as was witnessed during the global economic downturn in 2008-2009, and even then, Indonesia managed to post respectable 4.6% growth. We are optimistic that the country's growth will continue to hold up strongly in the face of an impending global and regional slowdown and that the country will outperform many of its regional peers in 2012.
Business Monitor International's Indonesia Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Indonesia's food and drink industry.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Indonesia Food Industry SWOT
Indonesia Drink Industry SWOT
Indonesia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Business Environment
BMI's Core Global Industry Views
Table: Agricultural Commodity Prices
Table: Core Views Q411
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
Q212: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings - Asia Pacific
Indonesia's Risk/Reward Rating
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Indonesia - Economic Activity
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Canned Food
Table: Value/Volume Sales, selected food sub-sectors - Historical Data & Forecasts
Confectionery
Table: Value/Volume Sales, selected food sub-sectors - Historical Data & Forecasts
Trade
Table: Indonesia Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Drink
Hot Drinks
Table: Indonesia Beverage Sub-Sectors - Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Indonesia Beverage Sub-Sectors - Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Soft Drinks
Table: Indonesia Beverage Sub-Sectors - Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Indonesia Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Format
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format (%) - Historical Data & Forecasts
Food
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Tapping Into The Fast-Food Potential
Establishing Its Foothold On The Global Halal Platform
Higher Rice Imports, Lower Fish Exports
Expanding Regional Footprint Across Indonesia
Market Overview
Food Production
Confectionery
Halal
Agriculture
Organics
Fisheries
Drink
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Exciting Beer Prospects Capturing The Sights Of Regional Brewers
Drinks Sector Remains An Investment Magnet
Bullish Coffee Sector Outlook Despite Near-Term Uncertainty
Market Overview
Soft Drinks
Alcoholic Drinks
Hot Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Retail A Big Attraction In Indonesia
Traditional Retailers Facing Greater Pressure On Market Share
Market Overview
Table: Structure of Indonesia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector - Estimated Number of Outlets by Format
Table: Structure of Indonesia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector - Sales by Format (IDRbn)
Table: Structure of Indonesia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector - Sales by Format (US$mn)
Table: Average Annual Sales by Format - 2010
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players in Indonesia's Food Sector
Table: Key Players in Indonesia's Drink Sector
Key Players in Indonesia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector, 2011
Company Monitor
Food
Indofood Sukses Makmur Terbuka
PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk
Nestlé Indonesia
Mayora Indah Tbk
PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk
Drink
Coca-Cola Amatil (CCA)
Strong 2010, Tough 2011 Ahead
Aqua Golden Mississippi (Aqua)
Mass Grocery Retail
Matahari Putra Prima
Carrefour
Hero Supermarket Tbk
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weighting
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing
- Indofood Sukses Makmur Terbuka
- PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk
- Nestlé Indonesia
- Mayora Indah Tbk
- PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk
- Coca-Cola Amatil (CCA)
- Strong
- Tough Ahead
- Aqua Golden Mississippi (Aqua)
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Matahari Putra Prima
- Carrefour
- Hero Supermarket Tbk
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