India Retail Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, February 2012, Pages: 81
Business Monitor International's India Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on India's retail industry.
The Q212 BMI India Retail Report forecasts that total retail sales will grow from INR22.53trn (US$489.80bn) in 2012 to INR27.73trn (US$739.56bn) by 2016. Strong underlying economic growth, population expansion, the increasing wealth of individuals and the rapid construction of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth.
As well as an expanding middle and upper class consumer base, there will also be opportunities in India’s second- and third-tier cities. The greater availability of personal credit and a growing vehicle population providing improved mobility also contribute to a trend of 6.9% average annual retail sales growth throughout the period.
India’s nominal GDP is forecast at US$2.10trn in 2012. Average annual GDP growth of 7.7% is predicted by BMI through to 2016. With the population expected to increase from 1.26bn in 2012 to 1.32bn by 2016, GDP per capita is forecast to rise 77.9% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$2,980. The growth in the overall retail market will be driven largely by the explosion in the organised retail sector. Domestic retailers such as Reliance Retail and Pantaloon Retail continue to invest heavily in increasing their store networks and improving in-store offerings, and the impact they have on growth will be boosted by the arrival of expansion-oriented multinationals.
Reliance Retail was looking to invest up to INR1.5bn (US$33mn) in 150 new stores by March 2011, adding to its existing 1,050-store network. CEO Bijou Kurien said, ‘Now that the recession is over, several new and stalled projects will get started. BMI would focus on both value retail as well as specialty, non-food retail stores.’ Reliance recently opened its 103rd Vision Express optical outlet in India in partnership with GrandVision.
Mass grocery retail (MGR) sales in India are expected to undergo enormous growth over the forecast period. BMI predicts that sales through MGR outlets will increase by 111% to reach US$69.23bn by 2016. This is a consequence of India’s dramatic, rapid shift from small independent retailers to large, modern outlets, although it must also be noted that this growth is forecast to come from a very low starting point.
BMI forecasts consumer electronic sales at US$33.92bn in 2012, with over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales at US$3.38bn. The former sub-sector is expected to show growth of 75.2% between 2012 and 2016, reaching US$59.44bn, with projected double-digit growth of key products such as notebooks, mobile handsets and TVs. OTC pharmaceuticals, meanwhile, should increase by 94.4% throughout the forecast period, to reach US$6.58bn.
Retail sales for the BMI grouping of Asian countries in 2012 are a forecast US$3.78trn. China and India are predicted to account for nearly 92% of regional retail sales in 2012, and by 2016 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2012-2016 is forecast by BMI at 31.2%, an annual average 9.0%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by Singapore. India’s forecast market share of 13.0% in 2012 is expected to increase to 14.9% by 2015.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
India Retail Business Environment SWOT
India Political SWOT
India Economic SWOT
Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Retail Sector Breakdown By Key Segment, 2012f
Table: India Retail Sales Indicators
Consumer Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
Regional Retail Outlook
Asia Pacific Retail Outlook
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016
Table: Asia Food Consumption (US$$bn), 2009-2016
Business Environment Outlook
Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings
India’s Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
India Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Leading MGR Players
Table: Structure of India's Mass Grocery Retail Market by Estimated Number of Outlets
Table: Structure Of India's Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales By Format (US$mn)
Table: Structure Of India's Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales By Format (INRmn)
Table: Average Outlet Sales By Format – 2010
Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
Market Overview
Computers
2011
Segments
Netbooks
Tablets
Low-Cost PCs
AV
Mobile Handsets
Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry Developments
Automotives
India Autos Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Industry Forecast
Trade
Industry Developments
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
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