Iran Telecommunications Report
Business Monitor International, March 2012, Pages: 89
Business Monitor International's Iran Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Iran's telecommunications industry.
Iran's mobile market, by far the largest segment of the country's telecoms industry, exhibited considerably slower growth in 2011 compared with previous years. This reflects the market's maturity, with the penetration rate just shy of 100% at the end of the year. This led BMI to revise down forecasts last quarter, which it holds in the Q212 update on Iran's telecommunications market. The country's secondlargest mobile operator, MTN Irancell, is still the only company to give any indication of how the market is progressing. The company's latest operational data for Q311 was stronger than Q211, but growth rates were still weak overall.
It is inevitable that Iran's mobile market would slow, as major cities approach saturation and growth prospects are more limited to rural areas that are harder to reach and offer more limited revenue. BMI's mobile subscriber forecast for Iran expects the mobile sector expanding by over 8% in 2012, with the mobile customer base forecast to grow to 80.85mn by the end of the year. BMI continues to expect the mobile market to cross the 100% penetration threshold in early 2012, adding only 5pps to the penetration rate in the year.
Nevertheless, it should be remembered that the bulk of mobile subscriptions in Iran are made up of prepaid users. Many of these are understood to be inactive and this means actual penetration rates are almost certainly much lower than the forecast suggests, hence BMI's forecasts for continued growth.
MTN offers data on ARPU in Iran, showing that subscribers spend an average of US$8 a month. While this is a respectable amount for an emerging market, regional peers see higher revenues from their subscribers. Dollar ARPUs fell in 2011 for MTN, although these increased in local currency terms. The increase occurred in spite of the promotions which the operator introduced in a bid to capture market share from mobile market leader MCI. This suggests ARPU growth was driven by other factors, including an increase in the general level of service usage and a trend towards the use of more lucrative data services. In 2011 we estimate that MTN's average blended ARPU grew by 2.4% in local currency terms to IRR82,434. This is despite reports that MTN's ARPU slipped to US$7.9 in 2011.
BMI's forecasts for Iran's fixed-line telephony and internet sectors remain unchanged. BMI's new fixed-line telephony depicts average annual growth of 1.9% in the five years to 2016. Although the annual growth rates are expected to fall in the latter years of the forecast period, BMI expects there will be just under 30.5mn fixed lines in service by the end of 2016, with a penetration rate of nearly 39%. Meanwhile, BMI estimates Iran had just over 27.34mn internet users at the end of 2011, a penetration rate of almost 37%. Despite strong internet usage growth in recent years, there are signs a major slowdown in growth is under way.
This could suggest that the limit of the country's addressable market of potential internet users is already being reached.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Iran Mobile SWOT
Iran Wireline SWOT
Iran Political SWOT
Iran Economic SWOT
Iran Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Ratings
MENA Q212 Risk/Rewards Ratings
Middle East and Africa
Middle East And North Africa Q112 Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Iran
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts
ARPU
Table: Telecoms Sector – ARPU – Historical Data & Forecasts
Fixed Line
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed-Line – Historical Data & Forecasts
Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Table: Iran – Mobile Market, June 2011
ARPU
3G
Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Iran Mobile Market Overview
Table: MTN Irancell
Table: Hamrahe Aval (Mobile Communications Company of Iran)
Table: Taliya (Rafsanjan Industrial Complex)
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
Country Outlook
Mobile Banking
Value-Added Services Timeline
Table: Selected VAS Services
Fixed Line
TCI Privatisation
Internet
Broadband
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
Table: Iran's Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Legislation And Market Liberalisation
Privatisation Of TCI
Competition
Regulation
Licensing And Spectrum
Industry Developments
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Table – Key Players: Iranian Telecoms Market
Company Monitor
Ericsson Global Quarterly Net Sales By Division (SEKmn)
Altobridge Keen To Expand In Middle East And North Africa
Operator Profiles
Telecommunications Company Of Iran (TCI)
MTN Irancell
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Broadband
Country Snapshot: Iran Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 1996-2005
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Table: Ratings Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources
- Telecommunications Company Of Iran (TCI)
- MTN Irancell
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