Italy Agribusiness Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, March 2012
Business Monitor International's Italy Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Italy's agribusiness service.
BMI View:
With the country's economic outlook bleak on most fronts, BMI does not foresee much investment into the Italian agriculture sector. In fact, a contraction in growth could lead to a dearth in consumption of food items such as meat, dairy and sugar. The agriculture sector is expected to stagnante, or grow marginally at best, in 2012.
Key Forecasts:
- Barley production growth to 2015/16: -9% to 903,820 tonnes
- Rice production growth to 2015/16: 3.8% to reach 1.68mn tonnes
- Poultry consumption growth to 2016: 3.8% to 2.63mn tonnes
- 2012f real GDP growth: -1.4% ave (down from 0.8% in 2011)
- 2012f Consumer price index: 3.0% ave (up from 2.9% in 2011)
Industry Developments:
In recent years, the strain of higher input costs have weighed heavily on Italian cattle farmers. Most of the costs come from accessing credit, high transportation and energy costs, increasing effluent disposal burdens, heavy bureaucratic regulatory contraints and falling demand. In addition, increasing demand for biodiesel made from corn, along with the need for more land required to fulfill the EU nitrates directive, have channelled more corn into industrial use, keeping corn prices elevated.
Opportunities for Italian pork producers are believed to lie in expanding export networks. Indeed, Italy mainly exports processed pork meat to other EU-27 member states (Germany, France, Austria, and UK). However, in recent years, other markets, such as Hong Kong, the US and Russia have reportedly increased imports of high value meat from Italy. BMI highlights that despite the sluggish economic climate, Italian companies have been able to increase exports over the last three years.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Italy Agricultural SWOT
Italy Political SWOT
Italy Economic SWOT
Italy Business Environment SWOT
Supply Demand Analysis
Italy Grains Outlook
Table: Italy Wheat Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: Italy Corn Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: Italy Barley Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: Italy Wheat Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Table: Italy Corn Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Table: Italy Barley Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Italy Rice Outlook
Table: Italy Rice Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: Italy Rice Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Italy Dairy Outlook
Table: Italy Milk Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: Italy Butter Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: Italy Cheese Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: Italy Milk Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Table: Italy Butter Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Table: Italy Cheese Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Italy Livestock Outlook
Table: Italy Poultry Production & Consumption,2011-2016
Table: Italy Pork Production & Consumption1-2016
Table: Italy Beef & Veal Production & Consumption1-2016
Table: Italy Pork Production & Consumption,2008--2012
Table: Italy Pork Production & Consumption,2008--2012
Table: Italy Beef & Veal Production & Consumption,2008--2012
Commodity Price Analysis
Monthly Grains Update
Corn
Rice
Soybean
Wheat
Monthly Softs Update
Cocoa To Regain Some Poise
Coffee To Continue Cooling
Palm Oil Uptrend To Hold
Sugar Upside Is Limited
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators -Historical Data & Forecasts,2009-2016
Canned Food
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales -Historical Data & Forecasts,2009-2016
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales -Historical Data & Forecasts,2009-2016
Frozen Fuit & Vegetables
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables,2009-2016
Baked Products
Table: Baked Products,2009-2016
Pasta
Table: Pasta,2009-2016
Meat, Fish And Dairy
Table: Meat,2009-2016
Table: Fish,2009-2016
Table: Oils And Fats,2009-2016
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format,2009-2016
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Format Type
Trade
Table: Trade Indicators -Historical Data & Forecasts,2009-2016
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Italy – GDP By Expenditure, Current Prices Breakdown
Monti To Boost Medium-Term Growth Prospects
Overhauling The Economy : Selected Reforms Enacted by the Monti Government
Table: Political Overview
GDP Flash Estimates Confirm Deceleration
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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