China Commerical Banking Report Q2 2012

China Commercial Banking Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, banking associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on China's commercial banking industry.

Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology

Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter.

The evaluation of the 'Limits of potential returns' includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the 'Limits of potential returns', the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the 'Risks to realisation of returns' also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI's assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.

Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the 'Limits of potential returns' are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the 'Limits of potential returns', it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the 'Risks to the realisation of returns' category, the market elements (i.e. how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody's Investor Services' ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI's long-term risk rating.

Executive Summary
Table: Levels (CNYbn)
Table: Levels (US$bn)
Table: Levels At December 2010
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2011-2016 (%)
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011
Table: Projected Levels (CNYbn)
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)

SWOT Analysis
China Commercial Banking SWOT
China Political SWOT
China Economic SWOT
China Business Environment SWOT

Business Environment Outlook
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology
Table: Asia Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings

Global Commercial Banking Outlook

Asia Banking Sector Outlook
Three Threats To Asia's Banks In 2012
Asia Banking Sector Forecast Overview
Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios
Table: Asia Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios
Table: Anticipated Developments in 2012
Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn)
Table: Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011)
Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields

China Banking Sector Outlook
Perfect Recipe For An NPL Surge

Economic Outlook
Table: China – Economic Activity

Competitive Landscape
Market Structure
Protagonists
Table: Protagonists In China’s Commercial Banking Sector
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe
List Of Banks
Table: Policy Banks And The ’Big Four’ State-Owned Commercial Banks
Table: Joint-Stock Commercial Banks, City Commercial Banks And Rural Commercial Banks
Table: Locally Registered Foreign Banks

Company Profiles
Agricultural Development Bank of China
Table: Stock Market Indicators
Table: Balance Sheet (CNYmn)
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn)
Table: Key Ratios (%
China Minsheng Banking Corp
Key Statistics For China Minsheng Banking Corp, 2008-2010 (CNYbn)
Bank of China
Table: Stock Market Indicators
Table: Balance Sheet (CNYmn, unless stated)
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
Table: Key Ratios (%)
China Construction Bank
Table: Stock Market Indicators
Table: Balance Sheet (CNYmn, unless stated)
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
Table: Key Ratios (%)
China Development Bank
Table: Key Statistics For China Development Bank, 2006-2008 (CNYbn)
Bank of Communications
China Merchants Bank
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
Shanghai Pudong Development Bank

Banking Sector Methodology
Commercial Bank Business Environment Ratings
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

- Agricultural Development Bank of China
- China Minsheng Banking Corp
- Bank of China
- China Construction Bank
- China Development Bank
- Bank of Communications
- China Merchants Bank
- Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
- Shanghai Pudong Development Bank

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