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Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, March 2012, Pages: 89
Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
Bulgaria’s pharmaceutical market will be under some pressure in 2012 due to a weakening economic outlook and the tightening of publicly funded healthcare services. However, we have broadly maintained our cautiously optimistic growth outlook for the year, supported by the fact that despite contractions in the wider economy in 2009 and weak growth in 2010, the drug market remained resistant to this weakness. Out-of-pocket expenditure will continue to be the main driver of growth, even in a slowing economy.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: BGN2.04bn (US$1.45bn) in 2011 to BGN2.18bn (US$1.43bn) in 2012; +6.4% in local currency terms and -1.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast moderately down since Q112 due to macroeconomic factors and analyst intervention.
- Healthcare: BGN4.83bn (US$3.44bn) in 2011 to BGN4.91bn (US$3.23bn) in 2012; +1.6% in local currency terms and -5.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast down since Q112 due to macroeconomic factors and analyst intervention.
- Medical devices: BGN281mn (US$200mn) in 2011 to BGN286mn (US$188mn) in 2011; +1.7% in local currency terms and -5.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast down since Q112 due to macroeconomic factors and analyst intervention.
- Risk Reward Ratings: Bulgaria’s Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) is broadly stable in our latest analysis. Bulgaria still ranks 13th out of the 20 markets surveyed in the region. Its composite score has increased by 1.3% compared with the previous quarter on account of a slightly improved country risk score, which takes into account political continuity and has improved following the conclusion of elections in October 2011.
Key Trends And Developments
- Healthcare expenditure is set be to flat in 2012, according to the budget delivered in November 2011. The National Health Insurance fund (NHIF) will have a budget of BGN2.63bn (US$1.77bn) in 2012, which is about the same as in 2011. While the spending available for medicines is up by 28.3%, we emphasise that this increase is mainly due to the NHIF taking responsibility for the funding of medicines that were previously financed through the Ministry of Health.
- In mid-January 2012, the NHIF said ti was ‘ready to start negotiating with pharmaceutical companies to achieve better discounts on drugs 100% covered by the fund’. It has also suggested that pharmaceutical companies offer new discounts for medicinal products that are partially reimbursed at the 25%, 50% and 75%.
- Bulgarian Minister of Health Stefan Konstantinov has said the ministry will ban smoking in closed public spaces in summer 2012. He said the decision has sufficient political support. The cabinet has issued a formal proposal to enforce the smoking ban in the closed public areas from June 1. However, the ban was initially scheduled for 2010 but the government delayed it over fears it might harm the tourism sector.
BMI Economic View
In late December 2011, BMI’s Country Risk team revised down our Bulgarian real GDP growth forecasts for 2012 and 2013 to 1.1% and 2.3% respectively, from 2.5% and 2.7% previously. The lack of a decisive resolution to the eurozone sovereign debt crisis will continue to weigh on Bulgaria’s economic outlook, dragging down the country’s trade, investment and consumption outlooks.
BMI Political View
The government is likely to continue facing significant challenges in 2012, particularly as it struggles to combat high levels of corruption and rising ethnic tension. We believe minimising internal party friction will be vital in the face of tougher economic conditions, which could provide the weak opposition with an opportunity to gain ground.
The results of October 2011’s controversial presidential and local elections, which saw GERB candidate Rosen Plevneliev win the presidency, are also likely to intensify opposition criticism. Seventy-one members from the opposition Bulgarian Socialist Party, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms and the nationalist ATAKA party have already unsuccessfully sought to cancel the results of the election, citing organisational irregularities as the reason to dismiss the outcome. While we do not expect further challenges to the result, the significant consolidation of political power in the hands of GERB is likely to provide an incentive for the opposition to present a more united front in the coming months and confront the government on key issues.
Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare SWOT
Bulgaria Political SWOT
Bulgaria Economic SWOT
Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Ratings, Q212
Bulgaria – Market Summary
Recent Regulatory Regime Developments
Intellectual Property Environment
Pricing Regime Developments
Reimbursement Regime Developments
Table: Main Causes Of Death In Bulgaria (per 100,000 population)
Healthcare Sector Developments
Table: National Health Insurance Fund Budget
Research And Development
Table: Classification Of Medical Devices In The EU
Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, 2008-2016
Key Growth Factors – Industry
Table: Overall Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Table: Bulgaria Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Table: Prescription Drug Sales, 2008-2016
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Table: Patented Drug Sales, 2008-2016
Generic Drug Market Forecast
Table: Generic Drug Sales, 2008-2016
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: OTC Medicine Sales, 2008-2016
Table: OTC Medicines Breakdown, 2006-2010 (US$mn)
Medical Device Market Forecast
Table: Medical Devices Sales, 2008-2016
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade, 2008-2016
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Local Pharmaceutical Sector
Foreign Pharmaceutical Sector
Foreign Company Activities
Table: Pharmaceutical Wholesale And Retail Market in Bulgaria
Merck & Co
Country Snapshot: Bulgaria Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components
- Actavis Bulgaria
- Merck & Co
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