Country Forecast Azerbaijan Updater
The Economist Intelligence Unit, May 2013, Pages: 17
The second term in office of the president, Ilham Aliyev, will be more testing than the first. The risk of social unrest will rise in 2013-17. The administration is likely to find it much harder to maintain social order through the use of a social contract (offering financial rewards in return for political acquiescence) as economic growth will be much weaker over the forecast period. Despite high global oil prices, a fall in oil output in 2011 and 2012 led to much slower growth. Growth is forecast to average around 3% per year in 2013-17. Annual average inflation will remain in single digits over the forecast period. Large inflows of oil-related foreign exchange and the presence of monopolies in several sectors will prevent more rapid disinflation. The manat will remain essentially stable against the US dollar over the forecast period. The current account will stay in surplus in 2013-17, despite weaker oil production.
Hundreds of people participated in the latest anti-government protest in the capital, Baku, in mid-March. It was the second demonstration over the poor conditions for military conscripts this year. Anti-government protests are likely to rise in the run-up to the October 2013 presidential election, but these will be dealt with quickly and forcefully by the authorities.
A report by the European Commission in March said that Azerbaijan should give the judiciary greater independence. Improvements in this area would provide a boost to the country's poor business environment.
Country Forecast Azerbaijan Updater
Azerbaijan at a glance: 2013-17
OVERVIEW
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Economic policy outlook
Economic forecast
Country forecast overview: Highlights
Country forecast overview: Key indicators
Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings
Country forecast overview: Azerbaijan's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure
Fact sheet
Outlook for 2013-17: Political stability
Outlook for 2013-17: Election watch
Outlook for 2013-17: International relations
Outlook for 2013-17: Policy trends
Outlook for 2013-17: Fiscal policy
Outlook for 2013-17: Monetary policy
Outlook for 2013-17: Economic growth
Outlook for 2013-17: Inflation
Outlook for 2013-17: Exchange rates
Outlook for 2013-17: External sector
Data summary: Global outlook
Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin
Data summary: Growth and productivity
Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size
Data summary: Fiscal indicators
Data summary: Monetary indicators
Data summary: Employment, wages and prices
Data summary: Current account and terms of trade
Data summary: Foreign direct investment
Data summary: External debt
Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations
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