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Country Risk Service Romania Updater

  • ID: 2101378
  • June 2015
  • Region: Romania
  • 21 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The sovereign risk rating remains unchanged, at the upper end of the BB band. The negative implications for the 2015 deficit target of plans to bring forward some major tax cuts caution against an upgrade. Public debt has risen since the 2008 global crisis but remains low, at 39.8% of GDP (ESA 2010 definition) at end-2014, and The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that it will stay below 41% of GDP in 2015-16.

The leu's exchange rate remained relatively stable in 2014, opening the year at Lei4.50:EUR1 and closing it at Lei4.48:EUR1. Foreign-exchange reserves fell by only EUR300m (US$400m) over the course of the year, to EUR32.2bn (US$43bn), despite external debt service payments of EUR8bn. Renewed euro zone turbulence, increased expectations of a rise in US interest rates or an escalation of the Ukraine-Russia crisis might increase pressure on the leu, but macroeconomic fundamentals remain sound and reduce downside risks to the currency.

The ratio of non-performing loans has been declining in recent months, and we expect this trend to continue throughout 2015.

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Country Risk Service Romania Updater

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2015-19: Political stability

Central scenario for 2015-19: Election watch

Central scenario for 2015-19: International relations

Central scenario for 2015-19: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2015-19: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2015-19: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2015-19: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2015-19: Inflation

Central scenario for 2015-19: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2015-19: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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