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Country Risk Service Romania Updater

  • ID: 2101378
  • January 2016
  • Region: Romania
  • 22 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The sovereign risk rating was unchanged in November. Political uncertainty following the appointment of a technocratic government in November, together with the negative implications for the 2016 budget deficit of the outgoing government's tax cuts, make an upgrade unlikely in the short term.

US monetary policy tightening and a slowdown in China and other emerging markets are causing uncertainty in global financial markets. Domestic political instability following the resignation of the government in November will compound investor uncertainty and may result in exchange-rate volatility for the leu. Given these concerns and the outgoing government's pro-cyclical fiscal policies, the central bank will pursue a cautious monetary policy.

The ratio of non-performing loans fell sharply in 2014-15, and this trend is expected to continue, albeit more modestly, in 2016. Local subsidiaries of Greek banks account for about 12% of total banking assets in Romania, but they have strong capital-adequacy ratios to protect depositors.

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Country Risk Service Romania Updater

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2016-20: Political stability

Central scenario for 2016-20: Election watch

Central scenario for 2016-20: International relations

Central scenario for 2016-20: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2016-20: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2016-20: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2016-20: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2016-20: Inflation

Central scenario for 2016-20: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2016-20: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service

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