• 1-800-526-8630U.S. (TOLL FREE)
  • 1-917-300-0470EAST COAST U.S.
  • +353-1-416-8900REST OF WORLD

Country Risk Service Romania Updater

  • ID: 2101378
  • August 2015
  • Region: Romania
  • 22 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The sovereign risk rating is now in the middle of the BB band, with the score having deteriorated by 4 points in July because of a modest upward change in our public debt ratio forecast and also Romania's exposure to contagion from a potential Greek exit from the euro zone ("Grexit"). The negative implications for the 2015-16 budget deficit targets of plans to bring forward major tax cuts caution against an upgrade.

Renewed euro zone turbulence as a result of the crisis in Greece and the risk of Grexit, expectations of a rise in US interest rates and uncertainty about Romania's relations with the IMF will continue to result in exchange-rate volatility for the leu. A prudent monetary policy and sound macroeconomic fundamentals reduce downside risks to the currency.

The ratio of non-performing loans fell sharply in 2014, and we expect this trend to continue throughout 2015. Local subsidiaries of Greek banks account for about 12% of total banking assets in Romania, but they have strong capital adequacy ratios to protect depositors.

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

Country Risk Service Romania Updater

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2015-19: Political stability

Central scenario for 2015-19: Election watch

Central scenario for 2015-19: International relations

Central scenario for 2015-19: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2015-19: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2015-19: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2015-19: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2015-19: Inflation

Central scenario for 2015-19: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2015-19: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

RELATED PRODUCTS

Our Clients

Aol, Inc. Accenture PLC. Unilever N.V. Nestle S.A. KPMG Roland Berger Strategy Consultants