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Country Risk Service Uzbekistan Updater

Description:
The Economist Intelligence Unit expects that the president, Islam Karimov, will retain a tight grip on power, and there is little prospect of democratisation. However, Mr Karimov's longevity is subject to question, and there are doubts over who will eventually succeed him, making for a highly uncertain outlook once he departs the political scene. Political links with the West will be closer over the forecast period than in the late 2000s, driven by the regional security agenda. However, political and economic ties with Russia and China will also remain strong. Real GDP growth is expected to slow in 2012-16 owing to a weaker external outlook, including a decline in global commodity prices, but is expected to remain robust, at an officially reported annual average of 6.5%. Lower commodity prices should also see inflation moderate-we forecast a still high rate of around 11% in 2012-16-and the current-account surplus is expected to fall to around 3% of GDP by 2016 from an estimated 7.4% in 2011.

The US government has sought privately to assuage the concerns of human rights organisations that increasing co-operation with Uzbekistan is taking precedence over human rights issues. Uzbekistan will remain important to the US as a route to deliver supplies to US and NATO forces in Afghanistan, especially given the repeated closure of the Pakistani supply route to Afghanistan.

The authorities have delayed implementation of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) with regard to the budget and treasury operations by two years. Progress towards improving data quality and releases will continue to slow.
 
Contents:
Country Risk Service Uzbekistan Updater

Uzbekistan at a glance: 2012-16
OVERVIEW
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Economic policy outlook
Economic forecast

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Rating definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2012-16: Political stability

Central scenario for 2012-16: Election watch

Central scenario for 2012-16: International relations

Central scenario for 2012-16: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2012-16: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2012-16: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2012-16: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2012-16: Inflation

Central scenario for 2012-16: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2012-16: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service
 
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