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Country Risk Service Zimbabwe Product Image

Country Risk Service Zimbabwe

  • ID: 2101390
  • June 2012
  • Region: Zimbabwe
  • 26 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The president, Robert Mugabe, continues to outmanoeuvre his coalition partners (and former opponents) in the power-sharing government. The key battlegrounds are Western sanctions and the timing of elections. These are likely to be held in 2013, although Mr Mugabe continues to insist that polls are possible in 2012. The economy should again register positive growth in 2012, and although inflation is likely to start tending upwards, the average rate should remain low by historical standards.

The fundamental splits between the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) are unlikely to be resolved prior to the next elections, and the parties continue to squabble over the timing of polls. The election process may well prove violent.

The government will continue to rely on aid grants (and Chinese finance) to fund crucial areas of expenditure. However, Western donors will remain cautious given that Mr Mugabe remains in control, and in the run-up to elections the government is likely to seek to use revenue from diamond sales to fund pay awards, in effect ignoring the IMF's call for a public-sector wage freeze as part of moves to tighten fiscal policy. Policy will also remain subject to political factors, including ongoing battles between the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (the central bank) and various economic ministries, and between the indigenisation minister and his economic counterparts.

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Country Risk Service Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe at a glance: 2012-16
OVERVIEW
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Economic policy outlook
Economic forecast

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook
Foreign-exchange regime

Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Rating outlook

Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment

Country risk
Overall country risk

Rating definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2012-16: Political stability

Central scenario for 2012-16: Election watch

Central scenario for 2012-16: International relations

Central scenario for 2012-16: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2012-16: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2012-16: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2012-16: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2012-16: Inflation

Central scenario for 2012-16: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2012-16: External sector

Central scenario for 2012-16: External financing requirement

Central scenario for 2012-16: External debt

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service

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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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