Country Risk Service Cote d'Ivoire Updater

  • ID: 2101422
  • March 2012
  • 19 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The December legislative election bolstered the president, Alassane Ouattara, delivering a parliamentary majority to his party, the Rassemblement des républicains (RDR). The president will soon name a full new cabinet, which will be composed of members of the RDR and the Parti démocratique de Côte d'Ivoire-Rassemblement démocratique africain (PDCI), as they renew their coalition. The Front populaire ivoirien will undergo schisms as it seeks to redefine itself, and is unlikely to pose a political challenge for the foreseeable future. A top priority for Mr Ouattara will be making progress with the demobilisation of former rebel fighters and with the integration of these fighters and troops loyal to the former president, Laurent Gbagbo, into a new national army.

The economy will bounce back as liquidity returns and spending on reconstruction spurs expansion. Real GDP growth is forecast to reach 6.4% in 2012 and to average 5.9% in 2013-16.

The rerun of the legislative election in some constituencies, prompted by legal challenges to the official results, has confirmed the RDR's dominance in the new National Assembly, giving the party an absolute majority of 138 out of 253 seats. The former justice minister, Jeannot Ahoussou Kouadio, was appointed prime minister, widely seen as a reward for PDCI support for Mr Ouattara in the second round of the presidential election in November 2011. Guillaume Soro resigned as prime minister and was elected president of the National Assembly. Mr Ouattara has taken on the defence portfolio.

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Country Risk Service Cote d'Ivoire Updater

Cote d'Ivoire at a glance: 2012-16
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Economic policy outlook
Economic forecast

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Rating definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2012-16: Political stability

Central scenario for 2012-16: Election watch

Central scenario for 2012-16: International relations

Central scenario for 2012-16: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2012-16: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2012-16: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2012-16: In focus: Global prospects and their implicat

Central scenario for 2012-16: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2012-16: Inflation

Central scenario for 2012-16: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2012-16: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service

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