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Country Forecast Greece Updater Product Image

Country Forecast Greece Updater

  • Published: March 2014
  • Region: Greece
  • 18 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

Greece's debt sustainability remains suspect, despite restructuring of debt in 2012 and a strong improvement in the underlying public finances, including a reduction in the budget deficit in 2013 (excluding one-off costs of bank recapitalisation). Greece still faces an unenviable choice of either continuing a severe fiscal austerity programme in return for bail-out funds from international creditors, or defaulting on its sovereign debt. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects Greece and its creditors to negotiate further debt relief over 2014-18. A "disorderly" default would probably trigger a collapse of the banking system and euro exit. We assign a 30% risk to Greece leaving the euro by 2018.

The two-party coalition government is fragile, and political instability is likely to persist. The coalition has been led by the centre-right New Democracy (ND) since June 2012; ND's junior partner is the centre-left Panhellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok). The Democratic Left (DIMAR) had initially been part of the government but left in June 2013. A subsequent cabinet reshuffle (which brought in several Pasok cadres) aims to stabilise the remaining coalition. We nonetheless expect the READ MORE >

Country Forecast Greece Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Greece's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2014-18: Political stability

Outlook for 2014-18: Election watch

Outlook for 2014-18: International relations

Outlook for 2014-18: Policy trends

Outlook for 2014-18: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2014-18: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2014-18: Economic growth

Outlook for 2014-18: Inflation

Outlook for 2014-18: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2014-18: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

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