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Country Forecast Greece Updater Product Image

Country Forecast Greece Updater

  • ID: 2101430
  • January 2015
  • Region: Greece
  • 19 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that the left-wing Syriza Unifying Social Front (Syriza) will win the pre-term election on January 25th and form a coalition government. We expect Syriza to finish first, but we do not expect it to secure sufficient seats in parliament to form a majority government, requiring it to form a coalition. Syriza's most obvious potential partner is To Potami (The River), a centrist, populist party formed in 2014. Other potential partners are smaller parties on the left, if they pass the 3% threshold.

Such a government's room for manoeuvre in relation to Greece's bail-out programme reforms and debt restructuring would be limited. Our baseline forecast is that a Syriza-led government would eventually collapse, triggering another election, which would amount to a referendum on Greece's euro zone membership. The centre-right New Democracy (ND) would probably win a second election; we assign a 30% risk to a Greek exit from the euro zone.

The EU/IMF-funded bail-out programme is likely to be extended for several months more, from end-February, after the formation of a new government. A Syriza-led government would find it difficult to implement legislative reforms tied to the programme. Fiscal consolidation would also be limited under a Syriza government. The funding that is tied to the implementation of programme targets is badly needed given the size of the country's financing needs this year.

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Country Forecast Greece Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Greece's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2015-19: Political stability

Outlook for 2015-19: Election watch

Outlook for 2015-19: International relations

Outlook for 2015-19: Policy trends

Outlook for 2015-19: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Economic growth

Outlook for 2015-19: Inflation

Outlook for 2015-19: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2015-19: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations

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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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