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Country Forecast Greece Updater Product Image

Country Forecast Greece Updater

  • ID: 2101430
  • March 2015
  • Region: Greece
  • 18 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The left-wing Syriza Unifying Social Front (Syriza) won the pre-term election on January 25th 2015 and formed a coalition government with the far-right Independent Greeks (IG). The two parties have nothing in common but an antipathy for Greece's bail-out programme and its overseers, the "troika" of external creditors comprising the European Central Bank (ECB), the IMF and the European Commission. The Economist Intelligence Unit's baseline forecast is that the government will collapse, triggering another election, which would amount to a referendum on Greece's euro zone membership.

The government's room for manoeuvre in relation to renegotiating the programme of reforms demanded by its external creditors will be limited. We expect that a reform package will be hammered out by end-April, but the risk of negotiations collapsing is high. Even if agreement is reached, implementation will run into problems.

Syriza does not desire an exit from the euro zone and euro zone political leaders fear the consequences of a "Grexit". Yet, both are dug into their positions, with little political room for manoeuvre. We assign a 40% risk to a Greek exit from the euro zone ("Grexit") in the short term (over the next 12-24 months).

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Country Forecast Greece Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Greece's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2015-19: Political stability

Outlook for 2015-19: Election watch

Outlook for 2015-19: International relations

Outlook for 2015-19: Policy trends

Outlook for 2015-19: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Economic growth

Outlook for 2015-19: Inflation

Outlook for 2015-19: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2015-19: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations

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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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