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Country Forecast Greece Updater

  • ID: 2101430
  • June 2015
  • Region: Greece
  • 19 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The radical left party, Syriza Unifying Social Front (Syriza), won the pre-term election on January 25th 2015 and formed a coalition government with the far-right Independent Greeks (IG). The two parties have little in common except for a shared antipathy for Greece's bail-out programme. The Economist Intelligence Unit's baseline forecast is that the government will not last a full term.

The Syriza leader and prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, has said that he will not call an early election. However, we expect that he will opt for an election within the next nine to 12 months, both to strengthen his mandate by winning a majority and to marginalise the party's far left.

We put the risk of a Greek exit from the euro zone ("Grexit") at 40%, which assumes that a last-ditch deal will be agreed by both sides by the end of June. The risk of failure is significant, given the political deadlock. However, we believe that euro zone political leaders will find a way to avoid a Greek default and Grexit.

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Country Forecast Greece Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Greece's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2015-19: Political stability

Outlook for 2015-19: Election watch

Outlook for 2015-19: International relations

Outlook for 2015-19: Policy trends

Outlook for 2015-19: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Economic growth

Outlook for 2015-19: Inflation

Outlook for 2015-19: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2015-19: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown


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