Country Forecast Germany Updater

  • ID: 2101438
  • August 2015
  • Region: Germany
  • 17 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the grand coalition comprising the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of the chancellor, Angela Merkel, its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), and the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) to last its full four-year term to 2017. The strong endorsement of Ms Merkel at the September 2013 general election implies a degree of domestic political stability in the coming years.

The policy agenda is more left-leaning than under the previous centre-right government. Overall, policy will continue to focus on fiscal consolidation. We expect the budget to stay in surplus during 2015-19.

Problems in the euro zone and tensions with Russia will remain the main risks to political, economic and financial stability. As the region's principal creditor, Germany will continue to direct the euro crisis strategy-albeit heavily dependent on assistance from the European Central Bank (ECB). In general, the country is prepared to pursue domestically unpopular policies to preserve the union, although negotiations over the third Greek bail-out in July demonstrated the limits of this. These policies now include the ECB's purchase of sovereign bonds, which began in March 2015.

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Country Forecast Germany Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Germany's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2015-19: Political stability

Outlook for 2015-19: Election watch

Outlook for 2015-19: International relations

Outlook for 2015-19: Policy trends

Outlook for 2015-19: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Economic growth

Outlook for 2015-19: Inflation

Outlook for 2015-19: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2015-19: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown


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