Country Forecast Germany Updater

  • ID: 2101438
  • June 2016
  • Region: Germany
  • 17 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the grand coalition comprising the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of the chancellor, Angela Merkel, its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), and the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) to last its full four-year term to 2017. We expect the CDU/CSU to win the 2017 general election.

The migrant crisis has heightened the political pressure on Ms Merkel and her continued leadership cannot be taken for granted-her initial open-armed approach to surging migration was starkly at odds with majority opinion in Germany. Our baseline forecast is that Ms Merkel will stay in office beyond the 2017 election-she retains considerable political capital and there is no obvious successor-but there are risks to this projection, as it assumes that Ms Merkel will continue to tighten migration policy if recent measures fail to reduce inflows to a much lower, and sustained, level.

Despite having faded from the headlines, problems in the euro zone remain a main source of economic and financial risk. Germany will continue to direct the bloc's policies, but its ability to project authority across the bloc will be dented as it becomes further mired in the migration crisis.

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Country Forecast Germany Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Germany's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2016-20: Political stability

Outlook for 2016-20: Election watch

Outlook for 2016-20: International relations

Outlook for 2016-20: Policy trends

Outlook for 2016-20: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Economic growth

Outlook for 2016-20: Inflation

Outlook for 2016-20: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2016-20: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

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