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Country Forecast Germany Updater

  • ID: 2101438
  • August 2016
  • Region: Germany
  • 18 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the grand coalition comprising the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of the chancellor, Angela Merkel, its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), and the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) to last its full four-year term to 2017.

We expect the CDU/CSU to win the 2017 general election and to head the next government, under the continued leadership of Ms Merkel. However, she has been under increased pressure and her continued leadership cannot be taken for granted. Her initial open-armed approach to surging migration last year was at odds with majority opinion in Germany. Our forecast that Ms Merkel will be in office beyond the 2017 election assumes that she would further tighten migration policy if arrivals were to accelerate sharply again.

Despite having faded from the headlines, problems in the euro zone remain a major source of economic and financial risk. Germany will continue to direct the bloc's policies. Tension in the euro zone and the EU will remain elevated throughout the forecast period. The risk of a euro zone break-up remains significant-we expect a Greek exit from the euro zone during our five-year forecast period-and the future of the EU has been clouded by the UK's vote in June 2016 to leave.

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Country Forecast Germany Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Germany's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2016-20: Political stability

Outlook for 2016-20: Election watch

Outlook for 2016-20: International relations

Outlook for 2016-20: Policy trends

Outlook for 2016-20: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Economic growth

Outlook for 2016-20: Inflation

Outlook for 2016-20: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2016-20: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations

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