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Country Forecast Portugal Updater Product Image

Country Forecast Portugal Updater

  • Published: March 2014
  • Region: Portugal
  • 16 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The centre-right coalition of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the small Popular Party (CDS-PP) came close to collapse in 2013, but looks increasingly likely to weather any difficulties between now and the end of its full term in October 2015. Opinion polls have been pointing to a Socialist Party victory at the next election, but the result will hinge on how Portugal fares after its EU/IMF bailout expires in May 2014.

There has been broad recognition across the political spectrum that fiscal adjustment is needed, but in the absence of the external oversight and conditionality entailed by its bail-out agreement, the risk will increase of policymakers' discipline waning. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts a budget deficit of 4% of GDP in 2014, in line with the 4% bail-out target.

The fiscal and economic reforms required under the bail-out plan include: lower government employment; transfers to state-owned bodies; tax deductions and benefits; rationalisation of education and healthcare; opening-up of closed professions; increased labour market flexibility and privatisation of state enter‑prise holdings. The corporate tax rate was cut from 25% to 23% in the 2014 budget, and the government plans further reductions in subsequent years.

Country Forecast Portugal Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Portugal's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2014-18: Political stability

Outlook for 2014-18: Election watch

Outlook for 2014-18: International relations

Outlook for 2014-18: Policy trends

Outlook for 2014-18: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2014-18: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2014-18: Economic growth

Outlook for 2014-18: Inflation

Outlook for 2014-18: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2014-18: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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