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Country Forecast Portugal Updater Product Image

Country Forecast Portugal Updater

  • ID: 2101495
  • December 2014
  • Region: Portugal
  • 16 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The centre-right coalition of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the small Popular Party (CDS-PP) came close to collapse in 2013, but now looks increasingly likely to serve out its full four-year term to October 2015. The government trails the opposition Socialist Party (PS) in opinion polls, but the reputation of both parties has been damaged by corruption scandals in November 2014. Waning public support for the main political parties raises the likelihood that a "grand coalition" will have to be formed after the next election.

After an estimated budget deficit of 4.8% of GDP in 2014 (larger than the 4% target for the year that Portugal had agreed with its international creditors), The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the deficit to narrow to 2.3% of GDP by the end of the forecast period. Risks to this forecast are skewed towards higher deficits. The government waived the final tranche of its EU/IMF bail-out funding in order to avoid having to find alternative fiscal adjustments in June, and Constitutional Court rulings have hampered fiscal planning. Deficit reduction in the 2015 budget depends on an acceleration in economic growth and a continuation of "strong tax pressures" to lift tax revenue significantly.

We expect public debt to edge slightly lower over the forecast period, from an estimated 129% of GDP in 2014. The debt burden will remain worryingly high, however, at around 124% of GDP by 2019.

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Country Forecast Portugal Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Portugal's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2015-19: Political stability

Outlook for 2015-19: Election watch

Outlook for 2015-19: International relations

Outlook for 2015-19: Policy trends

Outlook for 2015-19: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Economic growth

Outlook for 2015-19: Inflation

Outlook for 2015-19: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2015-19: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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