Country Forecast Portugal Updater

  • ID: 2101495
  • November 2015
  • Region: Portugal
  • 18 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The incumbent coalition of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the Popular Party (CDS-PP) won a plurality of votes at the October 4th general election, but lost its majority of seats. On October 22nd the PSD leader, Pedro Passos Coelho, was nominated prime minister-designate. However, The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that parliament will reject his government's programme, paving the way for a left-leaning administration.

Assuming that they reach a formal agreement, the centre-left opposition Socialist Party (PS), along with the communist-led Democratic Unitarian Coalition and radical Left Bloc (BE), is likely to form the next government. However, it is unclear how long such an arrangement would prove stable. Fiscal consolidation and economic reform would be likely to slow, and a new election would be possible in late 2016 or the first half of 2017

Portugal's successful return to the sovereign bond markets at low interest rates-with yields suppressed in large measure by the purchases that are being made by the European Central Bank-is allowing the country to repay its EUR26.9bn IMF loan, starting this year. The risk of further euro zone instability remains considerable, and we believe that Greece is likely to leave the bloc within our forecast period. However, emerging economic recovery has reduced Portugal's vulnerability.

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Country Forecast Portugal Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Portugal's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2016-20: Political stability

Outlook for 2016-20: Election watch

Outlook for 2016-20: International relations

Outlook for 2016-20: Policy trends

Outlook for 2016-20: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Economic growth

Outlook for 2016-20: Inflation

Outlook for 2016-20: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2016-20: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown


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