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Country Forecast Portugal Updater Product Image

Country Forecast Portugal Updater

  • Published: September 2014
  • Region: Portugal
  • 16 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The centre-right coalition of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the small Popular Party (CDS-PP) came close to collapse in 2013, but now looks increasingly likely to serve out its full four-year term to October 2015. The government trails the opposition Socialist Party (PS) in opinion polls, but its chances of re-election have increased following the European Parliament elections in May, which saw a wide dispersal of votes rather than a PS surge.

The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the government to miss its budget deficit target of 4% of GDP this year, with a deficit of 4.2%, partly as a result of slower than officially expected growth. The downside risks to this forecast remain high. The government waived the final tranche of its EU/IMF bail-out funding in order to avoid having to find alternative fiscal adjustments in June, and the Constitutional Court in late May struck down measures from the 2014 budget totalling EUR860m. The government is now relying on an expectation of higher than previously projected growth to address the gap left in the original 2014 budget by the court's decision.

In the first half of the forecast period we expect public debt to remain almost unchanged, at or very close to the 129% of GDP recorded in 2013. The debt burden will subsequently fall, but it will remain troublingly high, at 128% of GDP in 2017 and 127% in 2018.

Country Forecast Portugal Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Portugal's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2014-18: Political stability

Outlook for 2014-18: Election watch

Outlook for 2014-18: International relations

Outlook for 2014-18: Policy trends

Outlook for 2014-18: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2014-18: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2014-18: Economic growth

Outlook for 2014-18: Inflation

Outlook for 2014-18: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2014-18: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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