Research And Markets Research And Markets

Country Forecast Portugal Updater

  • ID: 2101495
  • September 2016
  • Region: Portugal
  • 17 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Portugal is led by a centre-left Socialist Party (PS) minority government. The administration is backed in parliament by three external supporters: the Left Bloc (BE), the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Greens (PEV).

The cabinet, led by António Costa, intends to "turn the page on austerity". Its policies prioritise stimulating domestic demand by boosting incomes for lower- and middle-wage earners, civil servants and pensioners. Mr Costa has been boosted by the EU's decision not to fine Portugal for non-compliance with the fiscal compact, and the president has made it clear that he opposes an election in 2016-17. In this context, the likelihood of a snap election in 2016-17 has receded, with a poll closer to 2019 more probable.

Portugal's successful return to the sovereign bond markets at low interest rates-with yields suppressed in large measure by the purchases that are being made by the European Central Bank (ECB)-is allowing the country to repay its EUR26.9bn IMF loan. The risk of further euro zone instability remains considerable, and The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that Greece is likely to leave the bloc within the forecast period. Emerging economic recovery has reduced Portugal's vulnerability, although the new government's policies-particularly with respect to privatisations and the financial sector-are likely to heighten investor skittishness.

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Country Forecast Portugal Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Portugal's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2016-20: Political stability

Outlook for 2016-20: Election watch

Outlook for 2016-20: International relations

Outlook for 2016-20: Policy trends

Outlook for 2016-20: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Economic growth

Outlook for 2016-20: Inflation

Outlook for 2016-20: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2016-20: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown