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Country Forecast Portugal Updater Product Image

Country Forecast Portugal Updater

  • ID: 2101495
  • March 2015
  • Region: Portugal
  • 16 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The centre-right coalition of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the small Popular Party (CDS-PP) will serve out its full four-year term to October 2015. The government trails the opposition Socialist Party (PS) in opinion polls, and The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that the PS will win the election, albeit without an absolute majority. We expect the PS to govern either with a parliamentary minority or in coalition with the centre-right CDS-PP. Both outcomes would involve a risk of increased political instability. But the broad para-meters of economic policy are likely to be the same regardless of which party (or parties) forms the next government.

Portugal's successful return to sovereign bond markets has enabled it to accumulate significant reserves of liquidity, which will be used to repay its EUR26.9bn IMF bail-out loan ahead of schedule, starting in 2015. The country's emerging economic recovery and relative domestic political stability should also, to some extent, insulate Portugal from a sharp rise in funding costs, either in response to developments in Greece or political contagion from elsewhere.

After an estimated budget deficit of 4.9% of GDP in 2014, we expect the deficit to narrow to 3.2% of GDP in 2015 and 1.9% by the end of the forecast period. Risks to this forecast are skewed towards larger deficits. The government waived the final tranche of its EU/IMF bail-out funding in June 2014, and constitutional court rulings have hampered fiscal planning. Deficit reduction in the 2015 budget depends on an acceleration in economic growth and a continuation of "strong tax pressures" to lift tax revenue significantly.

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Country Forecast Portugal Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Portugal's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2015-19: Political stability

Outlook for 2015-19: Election watch

Outlook for 2015-19: International relations

Outlook for 2015-19: Policy trends

Outlook for 2015-19: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Economic growth

Outlook for 2015-19: Inflation

Outlook for 2015-19: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2015-19: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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