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Country Forecast Portugal Updater

  • ID: 2101495
  • Country Profile
  • February 2017
  • Region: Portugal
  • 16 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Portugal is led by a centre-left Socialist Party (PS) minority government. The administration is backed in parliament by three external supporters: the Left Bloc (BE), the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Greens (PEV).

The cabinet, led by António Costa, has been moderately successful in "turning the page on austerity" while remaining within the EU's fiscal constraints. Its policies prioritise stimulating domestic demand by boosting incomes for lower- and middle-wage earners, civil servants and pensioners. Mr Costa has been boosted by the EU's leniency with Portugal with respect to fiscal compact compliance and the passage of the 2017 budget, and the president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, has made it clear that he opposes an election this year. In this context The Economist Intelligence Unit does not expect a new election until closer to the end of the legislative term, in 2019.

Government bond yields remain contained as a result of quantitative easing purchases made by the European Central Bank (ECB), but have risen since late 2016 and are likely to rise further. The risk of further euro zone instability remains considerable, and we believe that Greece is likely to leave the bloc within the forecast period (2017-21).
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Country Forecast Portugal Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Portugal's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2017-21: Political stability

Outlook for 2017-21: Election watch

Outlook for 2017-21: International relations

Outlook for 2017-21: Policy trends

Outlook for 2017-21: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2017-21: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2017-21: Economic growth

Outlook for 2017-21: Inflation

Outlook for 2017-21: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2017-21: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations
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