Country Forecast France Updater

  • ID: 2101521
  • August 2016
  • Region: France
  • 17 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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François Hollande of the Parti socialiste (PS) will serve a full term as president, but The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the PS to be defeated by the centre-right opposition, Les Républicains, in 2017. We expect Alain Juppé, a former prime minister, to be chosen as Les Républicains' presidential candidate, given his strong cross-party support and opinion poll lead. However, it remains possible that the former president, Nicolas Sarkozy, will be chosen.

A series of terrorist attacks in 2015 and 2016 has bolstered the far-right Front national (FN), which campaigns on a strongly anti-immigration, anti-Islam and anti-EU platform. However, the FN struggles to convert its popularity into electoral success. Our view is that too many voters oppose its policies for a presidential victory to be realistic under France's two-round electoral system.

Our baseline forecast is that in the first round of voting in 2017 the FN will push the PS into third place, before losing in a second-round contest with Les Ré-publicains. This assumes that a sufficient number of PS supporters will put aside their disagreements with Les Républicains to ensure that the FN is defeated.

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Country Forecast France Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: France's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2016-20: Political stability

Outlook for 2016-20: Election watch

Outlook for 2016-20: International relations

Outlook for 2016-20: Policy trends

Outlook for 2016-20: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Economic growth

Outlook for 2016-20: Inflation

Outlook for 2016-20: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2016-20: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

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