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Country Forecast France Updater

  • ID: 2101521
  • January 2016
  • Region: France
  • 17 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The president, François Hollande, will remain in office until May 2017. Despite this fixed electoral timetable, the president is under continuing political pressure. He has registered occasional bounces in his popularity-most recently following his forthright response to the November 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris-but these have all proved short-lived. The Economist Intelligence Unit does not believe that his reputation will improve sufficiently to win the 2017 election.

The Paris attacks have bolstered the far-right Front national (FN), which campaigns on a strongly anti-immigration, anti-Islam and anti-EU platform. However, although the FN now regularly comes out on top in opinion polls, it struggles to convert its growing popularity into electoral success. Our view is that too many voters still oppose its policies for a presidential victory to be realistic under France's two-round electoral system.

Our baseline forecast is that in the first round of voting in 2017 the FN will push the PS into third place, before losing in a head-to-head contest with the centre-right opposition party, Les Républicains, in the second round. This assumes that a sufficient number of PS supporters will put aside their disagreements with Les Républicains in order to ensure that the FN is defeated. We continue to expect Alain Juppé, a former prime minister, to be chosen next year as candidate for Les Républicains. Mr Juppé enjoys greater cross-party support than his rivals, but we acknowledge that the former president, Nicolas Sarkozy, has strong support and, as party leader, enjoys significant advantages.

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Country Forecast France Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: France's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2016-20: Political stability

Outlook for 2016-20: Election watch

Outlook for 2016-20: International relations

Outlook for 2016-20: Policy trends

Outlook for 2016-20: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Economic growth

Outlook for 2016-20: Inflation

Outlook for 2016-20: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2016-20: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations

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