Country Forecast France Updater

  • ID: 2101521
  • November 2015
  • Region: France
  • 19 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The president, François Hollande, will remain in office until 2017. Despite this fixed electoral timetable, the president is under continuing political pressure. He briefly regained some ground in early 2015, as his shift to a reformist economic policy began to gain some traction, notably with the passage of a modest package of economic reforms in February. However, there is no prospect that he can rehabilitate his reputation before the 2017 presidential election.

The prospects for Mr Hollande's Parti socialiste (PS) are further clouded by signs of renewed vigour in the main opposition party, les Républicains-formerly Union pour un mouvement populaire (UMP)-following a period of chaotic in-fighting in the wake of its defeat in the 2012 presidential election. Les Républicains' resounding victory in the March 2015 local elections was a significant boost for the party and for its leader, the former president, Nicolas Sarkozy, who hopes to be its presidential candidate in 2017.

Given the president's weakness and the pattern of election results in recent decades, the centre right is set to take office again in 2017. The Economist Intelligence Unit's forecast is for les Républicains to win the presidency, with a former prime minister, Alain Juppé, as its candidate. However, Mr Sarkozy has strong support in the party. In our view, a presidential victory for the far-right Front national (FN) is unrealistic-supporters of the two mainstream parties would co-operate to ensure its defeat-but we expect the FN to push the PS into third place, progressing to the second round of voting, against les Républicains.

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Country Forecast France Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: France's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2016-20: Political stability

Outlook for 2016-20: Election watch

Outlook for 2016-20: International relations

Outlook for 2016-20: Policy trends

Outlook for 2016-20: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Economic growth

Outlook for 2016-20: Inflation

Outlook for 2016-20: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2016-20: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

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