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Country Forecast France Updater Product Image

Country Forecast France Updater

  • ID: 2101521
  • February 2015
  • Region: France
  • 19 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The president, François Hollande, will remain in office until 2017. Despite this fixed electoral timetable, he is under constant political pressure. His popularity is the lowest ever recorded by a president of France's fifth republic. In August the president reshuffled his cabinet for the second time in six months, in response to outspoken criticism from left-leaning ministers. The reshuffle has brought greater cohesion to attempts to shift economic policy in a more liberal direction. However, formidable obstacles remain and progress will be patchy.

The president's Parti socialiste (PS) would be in a worse position if the main opposition Union pour un mouvement populaire (UMP) had not been mired in disarray since the 2012 presidential election. However, with the 2017 presidential election beginning to focus minds, it appears that the turmoil at the top of the party will come to a head with a battle for supremacy between the former president, Nicolas Sarkozy, who returned to frontline politics in September 2014, and a former prime minister, Alain Juppé, who declared his presidential ambitions in August 2014.

Given the president's current travails and the pattern of election results in recent decades, there is a strong likelihood that the centre-right will take office again in 2017. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the UMP to win the presidency, with Mr Juppé as its candidate. Notwithstanding its success in municipal and European elections in 2014, it remains inconceivable that the Front national (FN) could win a presidential election. However, it is increasingly plausible that in 2017 the FN might repeat its success of 2002, when it pushed the PS into third place and advanced to the second round of voting.

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Country Forecast France Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: France's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2015-19: Political stability

Outlook for 2015-19: Election watch

Outlook for 2015-19: International relations

Outlook for 2015-19: Policy trends

Outlook for 2015-19: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Economic growth

Outlook for 2015-19: Inflation

Outlook for 2015-19: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2015-19: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations

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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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