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Country Forecast France Updater Product Image

Country Forecast France Updater

  • ID: 2101521
  • September 2014
  • Region: France
  • 18 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The president, François Hollande, will remain in office until 2017. Despite this fixed electoral timetable, he is now under constant political pressure. His popularity is the lowest ever recorded by a president of France's fifth republic. In August the president reshuffled his cabinet for the second time in six months, in response to outspoken criticism from left-leaning ministers. The reshuffle will bring greater cohesion to attempts to shift economic policy in a more liberal direction. However, formidable obstacles remain and progress will be patchy.

The PS would be in an even worse position if the main opposition centre-right Union pour un mouvement populaire (UMP) had not been mired in fraud allegations and power struggles since the 2012 presidential election. Many of the allegations relate to the campaign finances of the former president, Nicolas Sarkozy, whose attempts to position himself to run for the presidency again in 2017 were badly dented in early July, when he was detained for questioning. The lack of leadership at the helm of the PS and the UMP has created an opening for the far-right Front national (FN), which has seen its support surge.

Given the president's current travails and the pattern of election results in recent decades, there is a reasonable probability that the centre-right will take office again in 2017, despite the current turmoil in the UMP. Notwithstanding its success in the recent municipal and European elections, it remains inconceivable that the FN could win a presidential election. However, it is increasingly plausible that in 2017 the FN might repeat its success of 2002, when it pushed the PS into third place and advanced to the second round of voting.

Country Forecast France Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: France's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2014-18: Political stability

Outlook for 2014-18: Election watch

Outlook for 2014-18: International relations

Outlook for 2014-18: Policy trends

Outlook for 2014-18: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2014-18: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2014-18: Economic growth

Outlook for 2014-18: Inflation

Outlook for 2014-18: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2014-18: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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