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Country Risk Service Ecuador Updater

  • ID: 2101531
  • January 2016
  • Region: Ecuador
  • 23 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Sovereign risk is CCC-rated, following a downgrade in July. Given the continued slump in oil prices, the fiscal deficit remains large-despite some adjustments-raising the public debt/GDP ratio above 30% (a threshold in our model). Reserves have fallen slightly of late, and the gross external financing requirement has risen. Concerns over fiscal management persist, despite some adjustment on the spending side.

Dollarisation will partly shield Ecuador from external volatility, although liquidity levels will remain under some pressure from persistently low oil prices. Concerns about fiscal management, as well as fluctuations in the level of foreign reserves, sustain a lingering-albeit low-probability-risk that dollarisation may be abandoned.

The banking sector is stable and relatively profitable, supported by fairly firm GDP growth. However, government intervention and a rising ratio of non-performing loans will constrain profitability and sustain risks.

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Country Risk Service Ecuador Updater

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2016-20: Political stability

Central scenario for 2016-20: Election watch

Central scenario for 2016-20: International relations

Central scenario for 2016-20: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2016-20: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2016-20: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2016-20: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2016-20: Inflation

Central scenario for 2016-20: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2016-20: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service

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