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Country Risk Service Ecuador Updater Product Image

Country Risk Service Ecuador Updater

  • ID: 2101531
  • September 2014
  • Region: Ecuador
  • 22 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

Sovereign risk is B-rated, supported by reasonable macroeconomic indicators, access to foreign credit from China and multilateral lenders, as well as renewed access to the international capital markets, demonstrated by the issuance of a US$2bn bond in June. However, concerns over loose fiscal management persist.

Dollarisation will partly shield Ecuador from external volatility, while firm oil revenue will bolster liquidity levels. However, concerns about loose fiscal management and fluctuations in the level of foreign reserves sustain a lingering risk that dollarisation may be abandoned.

The banking sector is stable and profitable, supported by relatively firm GDP growth and low levels of non-performing loans. However, rising government intervention will constrain profitability and sustain risks.

Country Risk Service Ecuador Updater

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2014-18: Political stability

Central scenario for 2014-18: Election watch

Central scenario for 2014-18: International relations

Central scenario for 2014-18: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2014-18: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2014-18: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2014-18: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2014-18: Inflation

Central scenario for 2014-18: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2014-18: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service

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