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Country Risk Service Ecuador Updater Product Image

Country Risk Service Ecuador Updater

  • Published: February 2014
  • Region: Ecuador
  • 21 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

A highly expansionary fiscal policy, restricted access to voluntary external financing and a we commitment to pay impair creditworthiness. An overdependence on oil revenue exposes the public accounts to falls in oil prices, although still-firm prices will be supportive in 2014-15.

Dollarisation will partially shield Ecuador from external volatility, while firm oil revenue will bolster liquidity levels. However, concerns over fiscal mismanagement, current-account imbalances and fluctuations in the level of foreign reserves sustain the risk that dollarisation may be abandoned.

Government intervention will continue to weigh on the banking sector risk rating and to erode profits. However, relatively low levels of non-performing loans and adequate provisioning levels will support the banking sector.

Country Risk Service Ecuador Updater

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2014-18: Political stability

Central scenario for 2014-18: Election watch

Central scenario for 2014-18: International relations

Central scenario for 2014-18: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2014-18: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2014-18: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2014-18: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2014-18: Inflation

Central scenario for 2014-18: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2014-18: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service

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