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Country Risk Service Ecuador Updater Product Image

Country Risk Service Ecuador Updater

  • Published: May 2013
  • 19 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The victory of the president, Rafael Correa, in the February 2013 election will ensure that the period of political stability that Ecuador has enjoyed over recent years will continue. His commanding majority in the National Assembly will ease the passage of legislation and remove obstacles to governability. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects Mr Correa's administration to maintain an expansive policy stance in 2013-17 and to continue its ambitious programme of public investment and infrastructure upgrading. High spending will keep the public accounts in deficit, although high forecast oil prices will support revenue. We expect real GDP growth to continue to slow in 2013 to 3.6% (from an estimated 4.8% in 2012) as public spending falls after the presidential election and as oil prices ease further. The government will continue to encourage private investment. However, persistent intervention by the authorities will act as a deterrent, as will the unpredictable policy environment. We expect the current account to remain in deficit during the forecast period.

Mr Correa's populist stance and confrontational style will remain a source of unpredictability both domestically and READ MORE >

Country Risk Service Ecuador Updater

Ecuador at a glance: 2013-17
OVERVIEW
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Economic policy outlook
Economic forecast

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Rating definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2013-17: Political stability

Central scenario for 2013-17: Election watch

Central scenario for 2013-17: International relations

Central scenario for 2013-17: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2013-17: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2013-17: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2013-17: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2013-17: Inflation

Central scenario for 2013-17: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2013-17: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service

Format Properties
Electronic (PDF) The report will be emailed to you. The report is sent in PDF format. This is a single user license, allowing one specific user access to the product.
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