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Country Risk Service Ecuador Updater

  • ID: 2101531
  • June 2015
  • Region: Ecuador
  • 23 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

Sovereign risk is B-rated, but is on the cusp of a downgrade, as lower oil prices have hit reserves ratios and raised the financing requirement. Concerns over loose fiscal management persist, despite some adjustment on the spending side. However, foreign credit from China and multilateral lenders, and renewed access to international capital markets following issuances of US$2bn in June 2014 and US$750m in March and May 2015, provide some support to the rating.

Dollarisation will partly shield Ecuador from external volatility, although liquidity levels will remain under some pressure from weaker oil prices. Concerns about fiscal management, as well as fluctuations in the level of foreign reserves, sustain a lingering risk that dollarisation may be abandoned.

The banking sector is stable and profitable, supported by relatively firm GDP growth and low levels of non-performing loans. However, rising government intervention will constrain profitability and sustain risks.

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Country Risk Service Ecuador Updater

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2015-19: Political stability

Central scenario for 2015-19: Election watch

Central scenario for 2015-19: International relations

Central scenario for 2015-19: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2015-19: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2015-19: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2015-19: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2015-19: Inflation

Central scenario for 2015-19: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2015-19: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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