Country Forecast Finland Updater

  • ID: 2101575
  • September 2015
  • Region: Finland
  • 17 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Following the general election on April 19th, Finland's new government is led by the Centre Party (KESK) and includes the far-right The Finns (PS) and the centre-right National Coalition Party (Conservatives, or KOK). The three parties hold a comfortable majority in parliament. The prime minister and leader of the KESK, Juha Sipila, based his choice of coalition partners on areas of policy consensus. The PS has softened its hardline stance and has reversed its policy position, notably on immigration and EU-bailouts, since entering government.

Ultimately, however, the PS's capitulation is likely to undermine political stability. The Economist Intelligence Unit's baseline forecast is that growing disenchantment among its supporters will lead to a fracturing of the PS and the replacement of Mr Soini as leader, ultimately weakening the party's resolve to remain in government. The coalition partners are likely to respond to the PS's withdrawal either by seeking to open negotiations with one or more opposition parties (to the right or the left), or by resigning and calling a fresh election.

The general government deficit stood at 3.2% of GDP in 2014, its highest level since 1996. A more aggressive fiscal adjustment programme from the new administration is likely to see the deficit reduced to 2.5% of GDP in 2015 and to continue narrowing before reaching balance by the end of the forecast period in 2019. The public debt/GDP ratio is likely to peak at 63% in 2016, above the EU's Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) threshold, before falling to around 59% by 2019.

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Country Forecast Finland Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Finland's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2015-19: Political stability

Outlook for 2015-19: Election watch

Outlook for 2015-19: International relations

Outlook for 2015-19: Policy trends

Outlook for 2015-19: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Economic growth

Outlook for 2015-19: Inflation

Outlook for 2015-19: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2015-19: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

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