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Country Forecast Finland Updater Product Image

Country Forecast Finland Updater

  • ID: 2101575
  • April 2015
  • Region: Finland
  • 16 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

Political instability is likely to remain a feature of the next parliamentary term after the general election, which is scheduled for April 19th. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that the main opposition Centre Party (KESK) will receive the highest share of support at the next election and will opt to form a centre-left coalition that includes the Social Democratic Party (SDP). The wide dispersion of party support is likely to mean that another diverse, four- or five-party coalition government will be formed. However, the parliamentary influence of the populist, far-right party The Finns (PS) will be weaker. This reduces the risk of PS-led action that could bring down the next government.

We expect broad political consensus on major policy issues during the next government's term. The main parties hold divergent views on labour market reform, but all advocate continued fiscal discipline. Cross-party support for reform of social and healthcare services and a privatisation programme suggests that these policies will be adopted regardless of the election outcome.

The general government deficit stood at 2.6% of GDP in 2014, its largest since 1996. A more aggressive fiscal adjustment programme from the incoming administration (whatever its political composition) is likely to see the deficit reduced to 2.3% of GDP in 2015 and to continue narrowing during the forecast period. The public debt/GDP ratio is likely to peak above the EU's Stability and Growth Pact threshold at 61.9% in 2016, before falling to around 59% by 2019.

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Country Forecast Finland Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Finland's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2015-19: Political stability

Outlook for 2015-19: Election watch

Outlook for 2015-19: International relations

Outlook for 2015-19: Policy trends

Outlook for 2015-19: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Economic growth

Outlook for 2015-19: Inflation

Outlook for 2015-19: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2015-19: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown


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