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Country Forecast Finland Updater

  • ID: 2101575
  • August 2016
  • Region: Finland
  • 18 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Finland's government is led by the Centre Party (KESK) and includes the far-right The Finns (PS) and the centre-right National Coalition Party (Conservatives, or KOK). The three parties hold a comfortable majority in parliament. The prime minister and leader of the KESK, Juha Sipila, based his choice of coalition partners on areas of policy consensus, but in November a stand-off between his party and the KOK over the details of healthcare reform plans almost led to the collapse of the government.

This episode has raised the risks to political stability that already stem from the PS's decision to soften its hardline stance since entering government, notably on immigration policy. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects that growing disenchantment among the PS's supporters will lead to a fracturing of the party and the replacement of Timo Soini as its leader, prompting it to leave the government. The coalition partners are likely to respond to the PS's withdrawal by calling a fresh election. Our baseline forecast is therefore that the coalition will fail to last its full four-year term; we see a high risk of collapse in 2017.

The general government deficit stood at 3.2% of GDP in 2014, the largest since 1996, and narrowed to 2.7% in 2015. Fiscal adjustment is likely to see the deficit shrink to 2.2% of GDP in 2016, continuing to contract to 0.2% by the end of the forecast period. The public debt/GDP ratio is likely to peak at just under 65% in 2016, before falling to about 60% by 2020.

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Country Forecast Finland Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Finland's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2016-20: Political stability

Outlook for 2016-20: Election watch

Outlook for 2016-20: International relations

Outlook for 2016-20: Policy trends

Outlook for 2016-20: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Economic growth

Outlook for 2016-20: Inflation

Outlook for 2016-20: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2016-20: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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