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Country Forecast Finland Updater Product Image

Country Forecast Finland Updater

  • ID: 2101575
  • May 2015
  • Region: Finland
  • 19 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

Following the general election on April 19th, Finland's new government will be led by the Centre Party (KESK), and consist of the far-right The Finns (PS), and the centre-right National Coalition Party (KOK). The three parties hold a comfortable majority in parliament. Coalition negotiations began on May 8th. The leader of the KESK and prime minister-elect, Juha Sipila, based his choice of coalition partners on areas of policy consensus. This reduces the scope for internal disagreements, the likes of which brought the last government close to collapse. As such, political stability should improve during the forecast period.

There are still areas of policy divergence between the KESK and the Eurosceptic PS on issues relating to immigration and fiscal adjustment. The PS could also complicate policymaking with left-leaning or pro-EU parties. However, the PS's desire to feature in the KESK-led administration will make the party willing to compromise in negotiations, resulting in broad political consensus on major policy issues during the next government's term.

The general government deficit stood at 2.6% of GDP in 2014, its largest since 1996. A more aggressive fiscal adjustment programme from the incoming administration (whatever its political composition) is likely to see the deficit reduced to 2.3% of GDP in 2015 and to continue narrowing during the forecast period. The public debt/GDP ratio is likely to peak above the EU's Stability and Growth Pact threshold at 62.3% in 2016, before falling to around 59% by 2019.

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Country Forecast Finland Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Finland's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2015-19: Political stability

Outlook for 2015-19: Election watch

Outlook for 2015-19: International relations

Outlook for 2015-19: Policy trends

Outlook for 2015-19: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Economic growth

Outlook for 2015-19: Inflation

Outlook for 2015-19: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2015-19: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown


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