Country Forecast Croatia Updater

  • ID: 2101576
  • November 2015
  • Region: Croatia
  • 19 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The Croatian parliamentary election failed to deliver a decisive result, with neither of the two main coalitions coming close to achieving a majority. The balance of power in the 151-seat parliament is held by the three-year-old Most (Bridge) party, a loose alliance of pro-reform deputies. Most could feasibly partner with either the centre left or the centre right, although at present the most likely scenario is a minority government with Most support.

With Most having significant bargaining power, the chance of major reform in Croatia has risen. However, so has the likelihood of political instability. The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that a minority government of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) and its allies in the Patriotic Coalition is marginally the most likely outcome, although this view is subject to unusually large risks. Such a government would not be stable, and would struggle to last a full term in office.

If Most remains united and sticks to its pre-election commitments, a govern-ment committed to a reform agenda could come to power. However, we are sceptical. Reform efforts will be frustrated by a powerful array of interest groups.

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Country Forecast Croatia Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Croatia's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2016-20: Political stability

Outlook for 2016-20: Election watch

Outlook for 2016-20: International relations

Outlook for 2016-20: Policy trends

Outlook for 2016-20: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Economic growth

Outlook for 2016-20: Inflation

Outlook for 2016-20: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2016-20: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data summary: External debt

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

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