Country Forecast Japan Updater
The Economist Intelligence Unit, April 2013, Pages: 16
Popular support for the newly elected Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) government remains strong, suggesting that it is likely to win the upper house election in July and to serve a full four-year term. Should the LDP emerge with a majority in the upper house, Shinzo Abe will be able to consolidate his position as prime minister and press ahead with the more hawkish elements of his agenda. Relations with China are expected to remain fraught in 2013-17, as Japan seeks to retain its strategic influence in Asia and to maintain the primacy of its alliance with the US. Despite the government's determination to end deflation and boost the economy, the underlying problems contributing to the slow rate of GDP growth in recent decades-such as unfavourable demographic trends and the disorderly state of the public finances-will not disappear. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects economic growth to average 1.3% annually in 2013-17.
In March the Japanese government announced that it would join negotiations between Asia-Pacific countries to expand the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free-trade grouping. So bold a move before the upper house election reflects Mr Abe's increasing confidence that the LDP, with its junior partner, New Komeito, will prevail in the poll.
Haruhiko Kuroda became governor of the Bank of Japan (the central bank) on March 20th. He is likely to oversee bolder measures to break Japan's deflationary cycle and boost anaemic economic growth.
Country Forecast Japan Updater
Japan at a glance: 2013-17
OVERVIEW
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Economic policy outlook
Economic forecast
Country forecast overview: Highlights
Country forecast overview: Key indicators
Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings
Country forecast overview: Japan's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
Labour market
Infrastructure
Fact sheet
Outlook for 2013-17: Political stability
Outlook for 2013-17: Election watch
Outlook for 2013-17: International relations
Outlook for 2013-17: Policy trends
Outlook for 2013-17: Fiscal policy
Outlook for 2013-17: Monetary policy
Outlook for 2013-17: Economic growth
Outlook for 2013-17: Inflation
Outlook for 2013-17: Exchange rates
Outlook for 2013-17: External sector
Data summary: Global outlook
Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin
Data summary: Growth and productivity
Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size
Data summary: Fiscal indicators
Data summary: Monetary indicators
Data summary: Employment, wages and prices
Data summary: Current account and terms of trade
Data summary: Foreign direct investment
Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations
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