Country Risk Service Japan 2nd Quarter
The Economist Intelligence Unit, April 2013, Pages: 16
Popular support for the newly elected Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) government remains strong, suggesting that it is likely to win the upper house election in July and to serve a full four-year term. Should the LDP emerge with a majority in the upper house, Shinzo Abe will be able to consolidate his position as prime minister and press ahead with the more hawkish elements of his agenda. Relations with China are expected to remain fraught in 2013-17, as Japan seeks to retain its strategic influence in Asia and to maintain the primacy of its alliance with the US. Despite the government's determination to end deflation and boost the economy, the underlying problems contributing to the slow rate of GDP growth in recent decades-such as unfavourable demographic trends and the disorderly state of the public finances-will not disappear. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects economic growth to average 1.3% annually in 2013-17.
In March the Japanese government announced that it would join negotiations between Asia-Pacific countries to expand the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free-trade grouping. So bold a move before the upper house election reflects Mr Abe's increasing confidence that the LDP, with its junior partner, New Komeito, will prevail in the poll.
Haruhiko Kuroda became governor of the Bank of Japan (the central bank) on March 20th. He is likely to oversee bolder measures to break Japan's deflationary cycle and boost anaemic economic growth.
Country Risk Service Japan 2nd Quarter
Japan at a glance: 2013-17
OVERVIEW
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Economic policy outlook
Economic forecast
Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Rating definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk
Central scenario for 2013-17: Political stability
Central scenario for 2013-17: Election watch
Central scenario for 2013-17: International relations
Central scenario for 2013-17: Policy trends
Central scenario for 2013-17: Fiscal policy
Central scenario for 2013-17: Monetary policy
Central scenario for 2013-17: Economic growth
Central scenario for 2013-17: Inflation
Central scenario for 2013-17: Exchange rates
Central scenario for 2013-17: External sector
Key risk indicators
Ratings summary
Quarterly indicators
International assumptions summary
Economic structure
Public finances
Exchange rates, interest rates and prices
Financial sector
Current account
Foreign payment and liquidity indicators
External trade
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