Germany Autos Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, March 2012, Pages: 66
Business Monitor International's Germany Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Germany's automotive industry.
The German autos industry outperformed the overall eurozone in 2011, both in terms of vehicle sales and production. New vehicle sales in Germany exceeded 3.5mn units during 2011, helped by 8.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in the passenger cars segment (to 3.17mn units) during the year, according to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA). Key to this strong performance has been the continued decline in the unemployment rate, which fell to a post-reunification low of 6.8% in December. On the other hand, passenger car production reached a record 5.91mn units in 2011 (according to estimates from the German autos association VDA), which came on the back of solid demand for exports.
BMI expects this out performance to continue, although BMI do not expect similar growth trends to remain in place. The ever-deepening eurozone debt crisis is already proving a major challenge to Germany's economic growth model. Further escalation of the crisis, which could see a sovereign or a financial institution default, may tip the balance and result in a major recession in Europe's biggest economy. In view of their outlook for real GDP growth to slow to 0.3% y-o-y in 2012, BMI expect passenger car sales to increase only 1.2% y-o-y, while BMI expect commercial vehicle sales growth to slow to 5.1% y-o-y at 352,846 units during 2012. Meanwhile, BMI expect cautious 2.2% y-o-y growth in exports to lead to equally cautious 2.5% y-o-y growth in production during 2012.
Meanwhile, BMI’s view of Germany being increasingly used as a base for high-value manufacturing received more strength in December 2011, when Volkswagen (VW) announced its plans to beef up its 2012-2016 investment programme for premium brand Audi from the EUR11.6bn (US$15.2bn) allocated earlier to EUR13bn (US$17bn). With a view to achieving annual sales of 1.5mn cars by 2015, VW revealed it will be spending nearly EUR10.5bn (US$13.7bn) on developing new products and electric and hybrid drive systems, which it has previous called 'technologies of the future'. Some 1,200 technical specialists will be hired at the company's German sites at Ingolstadt and Neckarsulm, where the company will be making investments worth EUR8bn (US$10.5bn). On the back of these strengths, Germany firmly maintains its third position in BMI's Risk/Reward Ratings for the autos industry in Europe, behind only Russia and the UK. The brightest link in the German autos industry is its strong premium vehicle segment, which has stood to benefit from the strong demand in the US and its diversification to high-potential emerging markets. BMW Motorrad, which operates in the high-end segment of the motorcycle market, achieved a sales record of 1,047,286 units in 2011, up an impressive 6.4% compared with 2010. The company claims to have increased its market share in the segment globally by 12% between 2010 and 2011 and to have doubled it in the past four years.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Germany Autos SWOT
Germany Political SWOT
Germany Economic SWOT
Germany Business Environment SWOT
Eurozone And EMs Pose Risks To 2012 Growth Outlook; US And Japan On The Rise
Table: Passenger Car Sales (Units), January-December 2011
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In BMI Ratings
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe
Regional Overview
EU-India FTA: Boon For European Carmakers
Table: Europe – Top Automotive Suppliers Sales By Region (US$mn), 2010
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Table: Germany – Economic Activity
Industry Forecast Scenario
Domestic Sales
Table: Germany – Autos Sales
Production
Table: Germany – Autos Production
Trade
Table: Germany – Autos Trade
Competitive Landscape
Historical Background
Major Industry Players
Table: German New Vehicles Sales By Brand (Units)
Industry News
Passenger Vehicles
Table: Germany – Passenger Car Segment
New Investments
Company News
The Alternative Fuel Race
Commercial Vehicles
Table: Germany – Commercial Vehicle Segment
Segment Trends
New Investments
Company News
Table: Timeline For MAN-Scania Merger
Motorcycles
Table: Germany – Motorcycle Segment
Segment News
Company News
Automotive Suppliers
Company News
Company Profiles
Volkswagen (VW)
BMW
Mercedes-Benz
Robert Bosch
Continental
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Forecasting Model
Sources
- Volkswagen (VW)
- BMW
- Mercedes-Benz
- Robert Bosch
- Continental
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