Nigeria Agribusiness Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, March 2012, Pages: 66
Business Monitor International's Nigeria Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Nigeria's agribusiness service.
BMI View: While growth output is strong for most of the commodities we analyse in this report, agriculture in Nigeria suffers from insufficient investment and developmental mismanagement. The Ministry of Agriculture, along with several industry bodies, has of late been calling for a radical shake up of the industry to boost domestic production and greatly limit food imports. It has been said that Nigeria could save NGN1.5trn on agricultural imports if the sector was well funded, while a government programme is expected to see Nigeria add 23mn tonnes of food to its capacity. While we reiterate that long-term agricultural growth is a core view, it will remain to be seen whether announcements and intentions will translate into the actual fast, robust development and investment required to achieve the level of self-sufficiency and food security the government desires.
Key Forecasts
- Cocoa consumption growth to 2016: 35% to 25,000 tonnes. While GDP per capita and population growth will boost cocoa-based products consumption, a stronger performance will ultimately be restrained by an inadequate food processing industry.
- Wheat production growth to 2015/16: 7% to 107,200 tonnes. Government initiatives to reduce import dependency of some foods may serve as a boost to local wheat output; but the country's unsuitability to the grain's production may be the main hindrance to developing output, unless more is spent on expensive irrigation.
- Pork production growth to 2015/16: 31% to 318,200 tonnes. Government support and improved farming techniques will be the main factors pushing supply growth forward.
- Milk consumption growth to 2016: 69% to 2.7mn tonnes. Underpinning our forecast for milk consumption will be rising living standards, together with substantial population growth and the country's oil revenues affording imports.
- Sugar consumption growth to 2016: 27% to 1.7mn tonnes. Sugar consumption growth will be driven by the expectation of strong population growth, the lack of available substitutes and increasing industrial demand.
- Rice production growth to 2015/16: 14% to 3.0mn tonnes. The government is seeking rice self-sufficiency and zero imports by 2015, but our forecast puts local rice demand as remaining nearly double domestic output.
- Real GDP growth 2012: 7.6% (up from 7.3% in 2011)
- Unemployment rate 2012: 17.9% (up from 17.1% in 2011)
- Inflation (annual average, % chg y-o-y) 2012: 10.5% (down from 10.9% in 2011)
Industry Developments
Minister of Agriculture and Natural Resources Dr Akinwunmi Adesina said in February that he expects Nigerian rice consumption to increase to 35mn tonnes annually by 2050, largely as a result of population growth. He also highlighted the government's intentions to reduce imports to zero by 2015 as part of the Agricultural Transformation Action plan (ATAP). While we see such goals as a sign that the sector could receive strong investment and see striding developments in output efficiencies, we do not see Nigeria being self-sufficient in rice in the time frame set out by the government.
In January, Dr Herb Ajayi, president of the National Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture, said that Nigeria could save NGN1.5trn on agricultural imports if the sector was well funded, according to the Daily Trust. He went on to say that the Bank of Agriculture should be restructured and guaranteed minimum prices should be sustained for agricultural products, with government operating as a buyer of last resort. He also called for agricultural subsidies to be based on production performance levels in order to directly benefit farmers and enable the government to play a more direct role in industry performance; commodity exchange and price protection mechanisms should also be put in place to ensure national food security and affordability of farm produce. Such calls chime with announcements made by the Ministry of Agriculture, which is being vocal about the need to reduce imports and boost local production to ensure food security, all of which is easier said than done and requires a great deal of combined government and private spending and cooperation, which is yet to happen at a level reflective of the country's requirements.
Although BMI predicts strong long-term production growth for the majority of Nigeria's agricultural subsectors, we emphasise the presence of numerous downside risks to our forecasts. In the cocoa sector, these include structural hurdles such as the need to negotiate improved access for its cocoa products to European markets. Disease continues to be one of the biggest downside risks to poultry production. Meanwhile, in the grains and dairy sectors, the production, storage and distribution of produce is hampered by inadequate infrastructure and energy supplies.
With regard to Nigeria's agribusiness sector in general, there is a need for the government to ensure that food production standards are adequately enforced. In some sectors, clearer regulations and standards are required to govern food production; in other sectors, existing standards need better enforcement as well as the provision of assurance guarantees to potential agribusiness investors.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Oman Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Oman Political SWOT
Oman Economic SWOT
Oman Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Risk / Reward Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa (MEA) – Regional Pharmaceutical Risk Reward Ratings for Q212
Rewards Risks
Oman – Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Recent Regulatory Developments
Intellectual Property Regime
Table: Current IP Laws In Oman
Regional Harmonisation
Pricing and Reimbursement
Free Trade Agreements
Industry Developments
Epidemiology
Table: Oman Mortality Indicators, 2006
Communicable Diseases
Non-Communicable Diseases
Recent Public Health Developments
Healthcare Sector
Table: Number Of Health Centres In Oman, By Region
Table: Healthcare Reform Targets
Table: Number And Type Of Health Institutions In Oman
Private Healthcare Sector
Healthcare Insurance
Telemedicine Medical Tourism
Research and Biotechnology
Clinical Trials
Medical Devices
Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecasts
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Healthcare Market Forecast
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic
Oman – Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016
Generic Drug Market Forecast
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Medical Device Market Forecast
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2008-2016
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Key Risk to BMI’s Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Pharmaceutical Sector
Table: Registered Pharmaceutical Companies And Products
Domestic Industry
Foreign Industry
Pharmaceutical Distribution
Company Monitor
Indigenous Manufacturers
Zynova/Oman Pharmaceutical Products Company (OPPC)
National Pharmaceutical Industries (NPI)
Multinationals
Novartis
GlaxoSmithKline
Sanofi-Aventis
Johnson & Johnson
Country Snapshot: Oman Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education and Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Glossary
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Weighting Table: Weighting Of Components
Zynova/Oman Pharmaceutical Products Company (OPPC)
National Pharmaceutical Industries (NPI) Novartis
GlaxoSmithKline
Sanofi-Aventis
Johnson & Johnson
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