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Country Forecast United Kingdom Updater

  • ID: 2105423
  • August 2016
  • Region: United Kingdom, Great Britain
  • 17 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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In a referendum held on June 23rd the UK electorate voted to leave the EU, triggering political, economic and market turmoil. David Cameron announced his resignation as prime minister, and following a short Conservative Party leadership contest, the former home secretary, Theresa May, became the UK's new prime minister on July 13th. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that the Conservative Party will enjoy an extended period in government, with Ms May potentially in office for a decade or more

We expect the UK to formally commence its withdrawal from the EU by early 2017, by triggering Article 50 of the EU's Lisbon treaty. We then expect negotiations to deliver a compromise "EEA minus" deal between the EU27 and the UK, entailing some constraints on the free movement of people (such as an emergency brake), at the cost of constraints on services trade. However, the risks to this forecast are firmly to the downside.

The constitutional impact of the "leave" vote will extend beyond the UK's relationship with the EU. It has already prompted new calls for independence in Scotland and could be destabilising for Northern Ireland.

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Country Forecast United Kingdom Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: United Kingdom's business environment at a glanc
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2016-20: Political stability

Outlook for 2016-20: Election watch

Outlook for 2016-20: International relations

Outlook for 2016-20: Policy trends

Outlook for 2016-20: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Economic growth

Outlook for 2016-20: Inflation

Outlook for 2016-20: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2016-20: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations

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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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