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Country Forecast United Kingdom Updater

  • ID: 2105423
  • June 2015
  • Region: United Kingdom, Great Britain
  • 19 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The Economist Intelligence Unit was one of very few forecasters to predict that the Conservative Party would remain in power after the general election on May 7th. However, the party's parliamentary majority was unexpected. Our baseline forecast is that the new government will last a full five years, but the risks to this forecast are significant given the government's slim majority.

A referendum on the UK's membership of the EU will be held in late 2016 or early 2017. We expect the electorate to vote to remain in the EU, as the potential economic costs of leaving become clearer during campaigning. Despite the Scottish electorate's rejection of independence last year, the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) was a big winner in the general election. A period of significant constitutional uncertainty lies ahead as divergent political and constitutional preferences in England and Scotland harden. A second referendum on secession cannot be ruled out.

The government will temper the pace of fiscal consolidation from its pre-election promises, for fear of exacerbating a moderation in the pace of growth that has already begun to take hold. Progress on other pressing concerns-such as a slump in productivity growth since the onset of the financial crisis-is unlikely in the forecast period.

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Country Forecast United Kingdom Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: United Kingdom's business environment at a glanc
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2015-19: Political stability

Outlook for 2015-19: Election watch

Outlook for 2015-19: International relations

Outlook for 2015-19: Policy trends

Outlook for 2015-19: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Economic growth

Outlook for 2015-19: Inflation

Outlook for 2015-19: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2015-19: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown


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