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Country Forecast United Kingdom Updater Product Image

Country Forecast United Kingdom Updater

  • ID: 2105423
  • August 2014
  • Region: United Kingdom, Great Britain
  • 17 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The governing coalition of the centre-right Conservative Party and the centre-left Liberal Democrats has a solid majority in parliament. Relations between the two parties are showing signs of strain, but the government will last until 2015, when the next general election is due. The most likely outcome of the election is that, as in 2010, neither of the two main parties (Conservative/Labour) will secure a parliamentary majority. Another coalition is therefore likely, but the process of forming a stable arrangement is likely to be more complicated than in 2010. A period of moderate instability is possible if prolonged inter-party negotiations are required before a government can be formed and a set of policy priorities agreed upon.

The election will be fought on the strength of the economic recovery and on the two main parties' economic policies. Another Conservative-led government would maintain the current strategy of fiscal austerity and public-sector reform. Labour is promising a markedly interventionist approach to the economy, and to the increasing cost of living and corporate vested interests in particular.

Scotland votes on independence in September 2014 and the prime minister, David Cameron, has promised a UK referendum on EU membership in 2017 if he is re-elected. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the constitutional status quo to be upheld in both cases, but a period of upheaval cannot be ruled out. In particular, if the UK were to exit the EU it would be hugely disruptive, overturning institutional arrangements and assumptions that have been in place for decades.

Country Forecast United Kingdom Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: United Kingdom's business environment at a glanc
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2014-18: Political stability

Outlook for 2014-18: Election watch

Outlook for 2014-18: International relations

Outlook for 2014-18: Policy trends

Outlook for 2014-18: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2014-18: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2014-18: Economic growth

Outlook for 2014-18: Inflation

Outlook for 2014-18: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2014-18: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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