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Country Forecast United Kingdom Updater

  • ID: 2105423
  • June 2016
  • Region: United Kingdom, Great Britain
  • 17 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The UK will vote on its continued membership of the EU on June 23rd 2016. Opinion polls point to growing momentum for the "leave" campaign, but The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts a vote in favour of remaining. Regardless of the referendum outcome, the divisiveness of the campaign will have long-lasting implications for party politics. It is clearer than ever that large numbers of voters are deeply angry and willing to vote accordingly. Opposition to immigration has been the dominant issue in the final weeks of the campaign.

A "leave" vote would trigger a period of political crisis. Mr Cameron would be unlikely to survive, and his successor would face economic turmoil and a profound realignment of the UK's domestic and international politics. The constitutional impact of a "leave" vote would extend beyond the UK's relationship with the EU. It would lead to new calls for independence in Scotland and would be destabilising for Northern Ireland.

Our baseline forecast is that the current government will last for a full parliamentary term, until 2020. However, the referendum has severely increased tensions within David Cameron's governing Conservative Party. If he loses the referendum, the blow to his authority could trigger a swift resignation.

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Country Forecast United Kingdom Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: United Kingdom's business environment at a glanc
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2016-20: Political stability

Outlook for 2016-20: Election watch

Outlook for 2016-20: International relations

Outlook for 2016-20: Policy trends

Outlook for 2016-20: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Economic growth

Outlook for 2016-20: Inflation

Outlook for 2016-20: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2016-20: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations

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