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Country Forecast United Kingdom Updater

  • ID: 2105423
  • Country Profile
  • March 2017
  • Region: United Kingdom, Great Britain
  • 18 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The UK will remain politically stable over the medium term, despite the challenges posed by the vote in June 2016 to leave the EU. David Cameron announced his resignation as prime minister, and following a short Conservative Party leadership contest the former home secretary, Theresa May, became the UK's new prime minister on July 13th. The problems besetting the main opposition Labour Party make it likely that the Conservative Party will enjoy an extended period in government, potentially remaining in office for a decade or more.

The UK will formally commence its withdrawal from the EU in the first quarter of 2017 by triggering Article 50 of the EU's Lisbon treaty. A speech by Mrs May on January 17th made it clear that the country would leave the single market. The UK would like to retain tariff-free access to EU markets, but full customs union would prevent it from negotiating trade deals with others. Mrs May stated that the government would like to have a customs agreement with the EU, implying partial or associate membership.

The government will aim to reach a deal on the new UK-EU trading relationship by the close of the two-year negotiating period in March 2019. At that stage the UK will leave the single market and the terms of the new relation-ship, which The Economist Intelligence Unit expects will contain sector-specific arrange-ments, will be phased in gradually. If negotiations fail and no extension of the deadline is agreed by all 27 EU members, the UK will leave the EU in 2019 without any deal in place and revert to World Trade Organisation (WTO) trade rules.
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Country Forecast United Kingdom Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: United Kingdom's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2017-21: Political stability

Outlook for 2017-21: Election watch

Outlook for 2017-21: International relations

Outlook for 2017-21: Policy trends

Outlook for 2017-21: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2017-21: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2017-21: Economic growth

Outlook for 2017-21: Inflation

Outlook for 2017-21: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2017-21: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown