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Country Forecast United Kingdom Updater

  • ID: 2105423
  • April 2016
  • Region: United Kingdom, Great Britain
  • 16 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the centre-right Conservative Party to govern for a full parliamentary term, until 2020. The government enjoys only a slender majority. The prime minister, David Cameron, will therefore be highly vulnerable to rebellions by his many restive backbenchers, particularly on the issue of the UK's position in the EU.

The UK's referendum on membership of the EU will be held on June 23rd 2016. We forecast that voters' status quo bias will lead to a narrow vote in favour of remaining in the EU. There are downside risks to this call. Immigration is the issue most likely to cause a swing to the "leave" campaign while, more broadly, the "remain" campaign will be hampered by the ambivalence towards the EU of the opposition Labour Party under its hard-left leader, Jeremy Corbyn.

If the UK were to vote to leave the EU it would lead to new calls for independence in Scotland, where pro-EU sentiment is strong. However, even if another referendum were to be called, Scottish separatists would struggle to overcome doubts about the economic prospects of an independent Scotland.

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Country Forecast United Kingdom Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: United Kingdom's business environment at a glanc
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2016-20: Political stability

Outlook for 2016-20: Election watch

Outlook for 2016-20: International relations

Outlook for 2016-20: Policy trends

Outlook for 2016-20: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Economic growth

Outlook for 2016-20: Inflation

Outlook for 2016-20: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2016-20: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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