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Country Forecast United Kingdom Updater Product Image

Country Forecast United Kingdom Updater

  • ID: 2105423
  • March 2015
  • Region: United Kingdom, Great Britain
  • 18 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The Conservative-Liberal Democrat governing coalition has a solid majority in parliament. Increasingly, however, all of the UK's parties are in election campaign mode ahead of the general election on May 7th 2015. As in 2010, neither of the two main parties (Conservative/Labour) will do enough to convince the electorate that it can be trusted to govern alone. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects a hung parliament and an unstable minority Conservative government, followed by an early election.

A period of political instability and governmental ineffectiveness lies ahead owing to the combination of increasingly fragmented voting patterns and the UK's starkly majoritarian first-past-the-post electoral system. Neither the UK's politicians nor its voters are prepared for the political and constitutional ambiguity this will lead to in the coming years.

A referendum on UK membership of the EU is likely during the forecast period. We expect the electorate to vote narrowly to remain in the EU, but this forecast is subject to significant risks. Further powers will be devolved to Scotland's regional government. However, the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) will gain in strength and a second referendum on secession cannot be ruled out.

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Country Forecast United Kingdom Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: United Kingdom's business environment at a glanc
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2015-19: Political stability

Outlook for 2015-19: Election watch

Outlook for 2015-19: International relations

Outlook for 2015-19: Policy trends

Outlook for 2015-19: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Economic growth

Outlook for 2015-19: Inflation

Outlook for 2015-19: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2015-19: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations

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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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