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Country Forecast United Kingdom Updater Product Image

Country Forecast United Kingdom Updater

  • ID: 2105423
  • April 2015
  • Region: United Kingdom, Great Britain
  • 16 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts a protracted period of political instability and governmental ineffectiveness as the fragmentation of voters' preferences hinders the formation of stable governments. At the general election to be held on May 7th 2015, we expect an even less conclusive result than in 2010, with neither of the two main parties (Conservative/Labour) coming close to securing a parliamentary majority on its own.

Our baseline election forecast is a minority Conservative government that will not last a full term. The risks to this forecast have increased in the first weeks of campaigning, owing to an unfocused Conservative performance.

Assuming that a Conservative-led government takes office after the election, we expect an in/out referendum on EU membership during the forecast period, resulting in a narrow decision to remain in the EU. Despite the Scottish electorate's rejection of independence last year, the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) has seen its support surge. A second referendum on secession cannot be ruled out.

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Country Forecast United Kingdom Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: United Kingdom's business environment at a glanc
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2015-19: Political stability

Outlook for 2015-19: Election watch

Outlook for 2015-19: International relations

Outlook for 2015-19: Policy trends

Outlook for 2015-19: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Economic growth

Outlook for 2015-19: Inflation

Outlook for 2015-19: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2015-19: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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