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Country Forecast Turkey Updater Product Image

Country Forecast Turkey Updater

  • ID: 2105426
  • April 2015
  • Region: Turkey
  • 18 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The Economist Intelligence Unit's baseline forecast is that the religiously conservative ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its former prime minister and now president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, will continue to dominate the political scene beyond the general election on June 7th 2015.

Our baseline forecast remains that the AKP will win enough seats to form another single-party government. However, the possibility that the AKP will fail to win an absolute majority (276 seats) has increased substantially, making a coalition government a more likely outcome than in the two previous elections.

We do not expect the AKP to win on its own the parliamentary super-majority needed to implement Mr Erdogan's plan to change the constitution and establish a presidential system of government. Without executive powers, Mr Erdogan would have difficulty controlling the AKP and the government in the medium term. A prolonged power struggle could develop, leading to a destabilising institutional crisis that would hinder government effectiveness.

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Country Forecast Turkey Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Turkey's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2015-19: Political stability

Outlook for 2015-19: Election watch

Outlook for 2015-19: International relations

Outlook for 2015-19: Policy trends

Outlook for 2015-19: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Economic growth

Outlook for 2015-19: Inflation

Outlook for 2015-19: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2015-19: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data summary: External debt

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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