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Country Forecast Turkey Updater

  • ID: 2105426
  • July 2015
  • Region: Turkey
  • 19 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The Economist Intelligence Unit's baseline forecast is that the religiously conservative ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its former prime minister and now president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, will continue to dominate the political scene during the forecast period. But the AKP's failure to win a majority of seats in parliament in the general election that was held on June 7th 2015 heralds a new period of political uncertainty and government instability in Turkey.

We expect an AKP minority government, or possibly a coalition admin-istration, to be formed. But neither arrangement would be likely to last beyond end-2016, leading to another, potentially inconclusive, election by end-2016, but possibly even as early as late 2015. With Mr Erdogan's plan to change establish a presidential system of government halted for the foreseeable future, we expect him to aim for a return to the prime minister's office in the medium term.

Mr Erdogan's hardline nationalist rhetoric, and episodes of violence in the south-east, including a clash in mid-April between security forces and militants of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), threaten to undermine the government's efforts to resolve the decades-old Kurdish issue. Under a coalition including the right-wing Nationalist Action Party (MHP), the fragile PKK peace talks would be off the agenda. The risk of a permanent return to violence has increased.

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Country Forecast Turkey Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Turkey's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2015-19: Political stability

Outlook for 2015-19: Election watch

Outlook for 2015-19: International relations

Outlook for 2015-19: Policy trends

Outlook for 2015-19: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Economic growth

Outlook for 2015-19: Inflation

Outlook for 2015-19: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2015-19: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data summary: External debt

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown


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