Country Forecast Turkey Updater

  • ID: 2105426
  • July 2016
  • Region: Turkey
  • 18 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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In the general election on November 1st 2015 the Justice and Development Party (AKP) scored a landslide victory, restoring the parliamentary majority that it had lost in the inconclusive June election. The result ended months of uncertainty about government formation and confirmed the political dominance both of the AKP and its de facto leader, the president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, until at least the next presidential election, in 2019, but it has not prevented a sharp deterioration in the political outlook.

The Economist Intelligence Unit expects Mr Erdogan to ignore the constitutional limitations on the presidency's exercise of power to tighten his grip on the government and his party. We expect the new government, led by Binali Yildirim, an Erdogan loyalist, to prioritise the establishment of a presidential system of government. The government's clampdown on dissent- notably in the media-and use military force to tackle the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) rather than seek to revive peace talks are also likely to persist.

The main threats to stability will stem from the country's south-east, where there has been an upsurge in violence, and Turkey's policy towards Syria. The resumption of armed conflict between the Turkish military and the outlawed PKK has coincided with increasing spillover into Turkey of the conflict in neighbouring Syria and tensions with Russia concerning its involvement in the conflict on the side of Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad.

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Country Forecast Turkey Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Turkey's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2016-20: Political stability

Outlook for 2016-20: Election watch

Outlook for 2016-20: International relations

Outlook for 2016-20: Policy trends

Outlook for 2016-20: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Economic growth

Outlook for 2016-20: Inflation

Outlook for 2016-20: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2016-20: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data summary: External debt

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

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