Country Forecast Turkey Updater

  • ID: 2105426
  • August 2015
  • Region: Turkey
  • 20 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The Economist Intelligence Unit's baseline forecast is that the religiously conservative ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its de facto leader, Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, will continue to dominate during the forecast period. However, following an inconclusive general election in June 2015, the AKP's ability to shape events has been badly dented and Turkey now faces a period of heightened political uncertainty and government instability.

The tenor of post-election inter-party negotiations suggests that it will not be possible to form a stable coalition or minority government. We therefore now expect a snap general election within months. As in June, a key issue will be whether the AKP can secure a majority in parliament. The performance of the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP) will be crucial in this regard; if the AKP can push the HDP back below the 10% threshold required to enter parliament, the former would almost certainly win an overall majority.

This electoral dynamic is one of the factors that have contributed to a re-intensification of Turkey's long-running Kurdish conflict. A fragile peace process has begun to collapse; fatal clashes between the Turkish security forces and the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) have become more frequent. If these clashes persist, the HDP could lose moderate voters at the next general election.

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Country Forecast Turkey Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Turkey's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2015-19: Political stability

Outlook for 2015-19: Election watch

Outlook for 2015-19: International relations

Outlook for 2015-19: Policy trends

Outlook for 2015-19: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Economic growth

Outlook for 2015-19: Inflation

Outlook for 2015-19: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2015-19: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data summary: External debt

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

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