Country Forecast Turkey Updater

  • ID: 2105426
  • January 2016
  • Region: Turkey
  • 17 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Following a campaign marred by violence, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) scored a landslide victory in the general election on November 1st, restoring the parliamentary majority that it lost in the inconclusive June election. The result ended months of political uncertainty and confirmed the political dominance both of the AKP and its de facto leader, the president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan-until at least the next presidential election, in 2019.

The election result was unexpectedly decisive. Voters appeared to have set aside their qualms about Mr Erdogan's authoritarian leanings in order to elect a stable, single-party government at a time of heightened uncertainty. It remains to be seen whether the new AKP government will be able to achieve stability. Months of violence and uncertainty have left the country more deeply polarised than before.

The main threats to Turkey's stability during the forecast period will stem from the country's south-east, where there has been an upsurge in violence. In addition, the resumption of armed conflict between the Turkish military and the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has coincided with increasing spillover into Turkey of the conflict in neighbouring Syria. The intertwining of Turkish policy on these two questions will pose a significant risk to security over the forecast period.

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Country Forecast Turkey Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Turkey's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2016-20: Political stability

Outlook for 2016-20: Election watch

Outlook for 2016-20: International relations

Outlook for 2016-20: Policy trends

Outlook for 2016-20: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Economic growth

Outlook for 2016-20: Inflation

Outlook for 2016-20: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2016-20: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data summary: External debt

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

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