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Country Forecast Turkey Updater

  • ID: 2105426
  • Country Profile
  • March 2017
  • Region: Turkey
  • 17 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The Economist Intelligence Unit's baseline forecast is that the president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, will succeed in establishing a presidential system of government with few checks and balances on the powers of the presidency. We expect a majority of voters to approve the necessary constitutional reforms in a referendum on April 16th 2017, with the reforms coming into effect after the parliamentary and presidential elections to be held in late 2019. The risk of the reforms being rejected is high, owing to Turkey's deteriorating security and economic outlook. Regardless of the result, Mr Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) will continue to dominate the political scene during the forecast period (2017-21).

The failed coup in July 2016 will have lasting negative implications for the domestic political outlook, as well as destabilising effects on foreign relations and the economy. Emergency rule, which was introduced in July to purge the state of the followers of the US-based imam, Fethullah Gulen, who is accused by the government of masterminding the putsch, will continue to be used to silence government critics and disable the pro-Kurdish opposition. Emergency rule will remain in place until at least late July 2017, and probably beyond.

Turkey is vulnerable to terrorist attacks by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and jihadi extremists affiliated with Islamic State (IS). Turkey risks be-coming mired in the Syrian conflict, following the deployment of Turkish troops to Syria to combat IS and to halt the territorial expansion by Syrian Kurds.
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Country Forecast Turkey Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Turkey's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2017-21: Political stability

Outlook for 2017-21: Election watch

Outlook for 2017-21: International relations

Outlook for 2017-21: Policy trends

Outlook for 2017-21: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2017-21: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2017-21: Economic growth

Outlook for 2017-21: Inflation

Outlook for 2017-21: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2017-21: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data summary: External debt

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations
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