Country Forecast Taiwan Updater
The Economist Intelligence Unit, April 2013, Pages: 16
The president, Ma Ying-jeou, and his party, the Kuomintang (KMT), retained control of the presidency and parliament at the January 2012 elections. The government has since struggled with low popularity ratings, and the cabinet was reshuffled in February 2013. There will be major debates over nuclear power and public pension reform. Relations with mainland China are expected to remain stable. Mr Ma's administration will also pursue trade deals with other countries. Economic growth will average 3.8% a year in 2013-17, with a recovery in global expansion supporting export growth. The budget deficit is expected to narrow to 0.8% of GDP by 2017 as rising revenue offsets higher spending on social welfare. Price increases will remain subdued in the forecast period, partly owing to the expected modest rise in the value of the New Taiwan dollar against the US dollar in 2014-17, which will help to contain imported inflation. The current-account surplus will remain large in 2013-17.
The proposed sale of Hong Kong-based Next Media's print assets in Taiwan to a consortium headed by a local tycoon, Tsai Eng-meng, collapsed in March. Civil-society groups mobilised forcefully in opposition to the purchase, partly because Mr Tsai is known for his pro-China views.
The Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) left its benchmark interest rates unchanged at its quarterly monetary policy meeting on March 28th. Uncertainty over the economic outlook means that the authorities are unlikely to resume policy tightening until 2014.
Country Forecast Taiwan Updater
Taiwan at a glance: 2013-17
OVERVIEW
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Economic policy outlook
Economic forecast
Country forecast overview: Highlights
Country forecast overview: Key indicators
Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings
Country forecast overview: Taiwan's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure
Fact sheet
Outlook for 2013-17: Political stability
Outlook for 2013-17: Election watch
Outlook for 2013-17: International relations
Outlook for 2013-17: Policy trends
Outlook for 2013-17: Fiscal policy
Outlook for 2013-17: Monetary policy
Outlook for 2013-17: Economic growth
Outlook for 2013-17: Inflation
Outlook for 2013-17: Exchange rates
Outlook for 2013-17: External sector
Data summary: Global outlook
Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin
Data summary: Growth and productivity
Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size
Data summary: Fiscal indicators
Data summary: Monetary indicators
Data summary: Employment, wages and prices
Data summary: Current account and terms of trade
Data summary: Foreign direct investment
Data summary: External debt
Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations
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