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Country Risk Service United States 2nd Quarter

  • ID: 2105460
  • April 2015
  • Region: United States
  • 20 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The path of fiscal policy was largely set by a series of budget agreements in 2013. The deficit narrowed to less than 3% of GDP in 2014, and we expect a further improvement in 2015. We expect the public debt/GDP to have peaked at 74% in 2014. Interest charges will rise from very low levels as monetary policy is tightened, but we expect this to be offset by a continued narrowing of the primary deficit.

Low inflation and concerns that the trend rate of US growth may have fallen below 2% will be restraining factors on bond yields in 2015, but yields will edge higher as monetary policy is tightened in the second half of the year. Trends in yield differentials will be supportive for the dollar against the euro and the yen.

Capital-adequacy ratios have risen and regulation has increased, which may make banks safer but will constrain profits. A two-point deterioration in the banking sector risk score reflects concerns about the possible impact on banks in the event of a decline in the value of asset markets when the Federal Reserve (the central bank) embarks on its monetary tightening cycle.

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Country Risk Service United States 2nd Quarter

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Rating outlook

Central scenario for 2015-19: Political stability

Central scenario for 2015-19: Election watch

Central scenario for 2015-19: International relations

Central scenario for 2015-19: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2015-19: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2015-19: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2015-19: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2015-19: Inflation

Central scenario for 2015-19: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2015-19: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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