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Country Forecast United States Updater

  • ID: 2105469
  • April 2016
  • Region: United States
  • 16 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Hillary Clinton, a former secretary of state, is forecast to beat Donald Trump to become the next president. She will benefit from a formidable campaign machine, will be more effective at broadcasting Mr Trump's weaknesses and will attract strong support from minority voters.

There are still three Republican candidates in the party's primary race, and Mr Trump is on track to win a majority of delegates. The best hope for the Republican Party establishment, which regards him as an interloper, is that remaining delegates are mostly divided between the other candidates, Ted Cruz, a senator for Texas, and John Kasich, the governor of Ohio. This could result in a contested convention and a new round of voting in mid-July.

The president, Barack Obama, faces a Republican majority in the House of Representatives (the lower house of Congress) and the Senate (the upper house), which will oppose his legislative programme. He will take "executive action" to change policy in areas where he does not need congressional approval.

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Country Forecast United States Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: United States of America's business environment
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2016-20: Political stability

Outlook for 2016-20: Election watch

Outlook for 2016-20: International relations

Outlook for 2016-20: Policy trends

Outlook for 2016-20: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Economic growth

Outlook for 2016-20: Inflation

Outlook for 2016-20: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2016-20: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations

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