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Country Forecast United States Updater

  • ID: 2105469
  • August 2015
  • Region: United States
  • 17 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

For the rest of his term, the president, Barack Obama, will have to deal with a Republican majority in the House of Representatives (the lower house of Congress) and the Senate (the upper house), which will tend to oppose his legislative programme. An emboldened Mr Obama will take "executive action" to change policy in areas where he does not need congressional approval.

Campaigning has started for the next presidential election, which takes place in November 2016. Hillary Clinton, a former secretary of state, is the likely Democratic nominee. She stands a good chance of winning if the economy is growing strongly, as she is tied to the record of Mr Obama. If voters feel that they are yet to benefit from the recovery, they are more likely to opt for the Republican candidate, who will probably be either the Wisconsin governor, Scott Walker, the Florida senator, Marco Rubio, or a former Florida governor, Jeb Bush.

Four years of austerity have mended the public accounts, and government spending will gradually support economic growth again. Most of the rebound will be at the local and state levels as Congress continues to focus on reducing the federal deficit. The federal budget deficit is forecast to decline from 2.8% of GDP in 2014 to 2.2% in 2018, before rising in 2019 as the economy weakens.

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Country Forecast United States Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: United States of America's business environment
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
Taxes
Financing
The labour market
Infrastructure

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2015-19: Political stability

Outlook for 2015-19: Election watch

Outlook for 2015-19: International relations

Outlook for 2015-19: Policy trends

Outlook for 2015-19: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2015-19: Economic growth

Outlook for 2015-19: Inflation

Outlook for 2015-19: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2015-19: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data
Abbreviations

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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