Country Forecast United States Updater

  • ID: 2105469
  • August 2016
  • Region: United States
  • 18 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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Hillary Clinton, a former secretary of state, will face a celebrity billionaire, Donald Trump, at the presidential election in November. Both candidates are well known and extremely unpopular; consequently, campaigning will remain negative in tone. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects Ms Clinton to win and her Democratic Party to win back a majority in the Senate (the upper house).

Ms Clinton will benefit from favourable demographics, low unemployment and Mr Trump alienating groups of the electorate. The risk of a Trump presidency would rise if the US were subject to a major domestic terrorist attack in the weeks before the election.

We expect more legislative deadlock in 2016-20. Republicans in the House of Representatives (the lower house) will block most of Ms Clinton's proposals on healthcare, social security, taxes and infrastructure. She will rely on "executive action" to change policy in areas that do not need congressional approval.

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Country Forecast United States Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: United States of America's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2016-20: Political stability

Outlook for 2016-20: Election watch

Outlook for 2016-20: International relations

Outlook for 2016-20: Policy trends

Outlook for 2016-20: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Economic growth

Outlook for 2016-20: Inflation

Outlook for 2016-20: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2016-20: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

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