Chile Retail Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, March 2012, Pages: 83
Business Monitor International's Chile Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Chile's retail industry.
The Q212 BMI Chile retail report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from US$55.76bn in 2012 to US$62.72bn in 2016, an increase of 12.5%. High consumer spending power, well developed physical infrastructure and a business-friendly regulatory environment are key factors behind the forecast growth in Chilean retail sales.
Chile’s nominal GDP is predicted to be US$275.79bn in 2012, with real GDP growth of 4.8% expected for the year. Average annual GDP growth of 3.7% is forecast by BMI between 2012 and 2016. With the population forecast to increase from 17.4mn in 2012 to 18.0mn by 2016, GDP per capita is forecast to rise 29.2% to US$20,454.
In 2005, 66.4% of the Chilean population was described by the UN Population Division as economically active, with 37.5% in the crucial 20-44 age group, which is vital for retail sales. The majority of Chileans live in urban areas (87.7%) according to the UN data, with 40% of the population living in the Santiago metropolitan area alone. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to account for more than 90% of the total, with 37.3% aged between 20 and 44 and 68.6% of the population expected to be economically active.
Chile’s youth population is driving demand for consumer goods, with 3.34% of the household budget spent on clothes in 2007, according to Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE). This was the highest spending category after cars, rent and public transport. We believe the government’s social programmes and rising income across the board will lead to a fall in income inequality over the next few years, significantly increasing the potential profit of consumer industries and the investment appeal of the Chilean economy. Retail sub-sectors expected to show strong growth over the forecast period include food and drink, with sales forecast to rise from an expected US$26.29bn in 2012 to US$39.41bn by 2016, a rise of nearly 50%. With mass grocery retail (MGR) penetration levels comparatively low and scope for expansion beyond Santiago, sales at MGR outlets are expected to grow by more than 45% over the period, from US$20.81bn in 2012 to US$30.63bn by 2016.
BMI forecasts over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales to increase from US$0.57bn in 2012 to US$0.85bn by the end of the forecast period, up nearly 49% as the ageing population and growing disease burden drive pharmaceutical market growth.
Consumer electronic products sales are forecast to rise by 26%, from US$3.03bn in 2012 to US$3.81bn by 2016. Chile’s consumer electronics markets is one of the most sophisticated in Latin America as a result of GDP per capita being higher than in Argentina or Brazil. The Chilean market offers continued growth potential in key digital product groups such as computers (which have lower than 20% penetration), notebooks and LCD TV sets.
Automotive sales are forecast to rise by nearly 38% to 571,326 units by 2016. We adjusted our forecasts for vehicles sales as a result of the stronger-than-expected recovery of domestic demand following the global financial crisis, and expect vehicle sales growth to average 7.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) between 2012 and 2016.
Foreign travel and tourists have stimulated increasingly consumerist attitudes and consumption in recent years. While global tourism declined by 4% in 2009, according to the World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO), figures from INE show 2-3% growth in tourist arrivals to Chile in 2009. In the peak month of January that year, revenue from foreign tourists rose by 9% y-o-y, with arrivals from Argentina up by an even more impressive 22%. Domestic tourism revenues rose by 8%.
Some 2.77mn tourists visited the country in 2010, an increase of 0.6% on 2009. For 9M11, arrivals data show an 11.9% y-o-y increase to 2.21mn tourists, according to figures released by the Chilean National Tourism Service (Servicio Nacional de Turismo Chile, Sernatur). BMI estimates that a total of 3.04mn tourists visited Chile in 2011, an increase of 10% y-o-y.
Retail sales for our Latin American universe in 2012 are expected to reach US$1.47trn, based on varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, is predicted to be US$3.24trn. Brazil and Mexico are expected to account for an estimated 72.9% of regional retail sales in 2012, with the two countries still likely to account for 71.3% of all retail sales in the region by 2016 – and Venezuela accounting for another sizeable 12.7%. For Chile, its predicted 2012 market share of 3.8% is expected to fall to 3.0% by 2016.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Chile Retail Business Environment SWOT
Chile Political SWOT
Chile Economic SWOT
Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Chile Retail Industry, 2008-2016
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2012f
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Chile - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Regional Retail Outlook
Latin America Retail Outlook
Regional Retail Trends
Business Environment Outlook
Latin America Retail Business Environment Ratings
Table: Latin America Retail Business Environment Ratings
Chile’s Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
Chile Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Table: Structure of Chile’s Mass Grocery Retail Market by Estimated Number of Outlets, 2003-2009
Table: Structure of Chile’s Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales by Format, 2003-2009 (US$bn)
Table: Structure of Chile’s Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales by Format, 2003-2009 (CHLbn)
Table: Average Annual Sales Value by Format, 2009 (US$mn and CHLbn)
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Chile Mass Grocery Retail - Sales by Format (2009-2016)
Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
Chile Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Market Overview
Computers
Table: PC Sales, 2008-2016
AV
Table: AV Sales, 2008-2016
Mobile Handsets
Table: Mobile Communications, 2008-2016
Consumer Electronics Industry
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2008-2016 (US$mn)
Industry Developments
Automotives
Chile Autos Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Table: Chinese Carmakers’ Sales in Chile, 2010 (Units)
Premium Growth
Commercial Growth
Table: Chile Commercial Vehicles Sales – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 (CBUs unless otherwise stated)
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Chile Autos Sales – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 (CBUs unless otherwise stated)
Table: Chile Autos Production – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
Table: Chile Autos Fleet Size and Car Density – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
Industry Developments
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
Product Samples
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