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Hungary Telecommunications Report Q2 2012
Description:
Business Monitor International's Hungary Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hungary's telecommunications industry.
BMI's Q212 update to the Hungary Telecommunications report analyses the latest trends and developments, including the licensing of a fourth mobile operator and the launch of the first commercial LTE services in the country. The report also includes BMI's forecasts for Hungary's fixed-line, broadband, mobile subscriber and mobile monthly blended ARPU through to the end of 2016. Our forecasts are based on analysis of regulations, market trends and data from both the regulator and operators Telenor, Deutsche Telekom-owned T-Mobile and Vodafone Hungary, covering the period to the end of September 2011. At the time of writing, market leader T-Mobile was yet to publish data for Q411. In addition, the fixed-line and broadband sections of the report include data covering fixed-voice, fixed and mobile broadband and pay-TV reported by Magyar Telekom and Liberty Global-owned UPC.
There have been two significant developments since the Q112 update to the Hungary Telecommunications Report, both of which are covered in depth later in the report. The first significant development was the February 2012 10.8MHz of spectrum in the 900MHz band, raising HUF43.9bn (US$197mn). The tender has resulted in a new licensee in the form of an operator consortium made up of state-owned electricity firm MVM, Magyar Posta and the Hungarian Development Bank (MFB). The existing operators also won spectrum, but it is the potential impact of a new entrant that is most significant for the market. With few growth opportunities left in 2012 and a possibility of macroeconomic headwinds impacting the markets development, BMI believes the operator will face serious challenges in seeking an 11% market share by 2017.
Meanwhile, market leader Magyar Telekom announced the launch of 4G LTE services in Budapest in January 2012. It launched LTE services in 10 districts of the capital, Budapest, following a three-month trial of more than 100 personal and business users. The operator plans to continue investment in 2012 and expand coverage. The service offers a maximum download speed of 60Mbps, with a guaranteed download speed of 4Mbps and a download limit of 40GB a month. The commercial launch of LTE services makes the wireless data market one of the most developed in the region and opens new possibilities in VAS delivery.
The most recent complete set of operator data relates to the period to the end of September 2011. The Hungarian mobile market experienced a mixed 9M11, with declining subscriber numbers, but an improving subscriber mix. The majority of subscriber losses occurred in the first quarter of the year, with only minor losses in Q211 and Q311. Market leader T-Mobile reported a subscriber loss of 431,000 in Q111, with the majority of the losses occurring in the postpaid segment. The higher value of the postpaid segment makes this particularly damaging for the operator. However, T-Mobile's parent company says in its results that the loss is related to a restating of figures and this time excludes business customers. This explains the postpaid losses. This is an issue BMI plans to watch closely in the coming quarters to determine the impact on the market.
The most recent results reported by operators have also shown a slight slowdown in the fixed and mobile broadband markets. This resulted in us restating our forecasts for the broadband sector and downgrading them slightly, but we still expect robust growth. In the other segments, BMI forecasts a deceleration in the rate of decline in the fixed-line voice sector as intransigent fixed-line customers are hesitant to upgrade technologies. We downgraded our mobile forecasts based on the restated subscriber figures from T-Mobile.
BMI's Q212 update to the Hungary Telecommunications report analyses the latest trends and developments, including the licensing of a fourth mobile operator and the launch of the first commercial LTE services in the country. The report also includes BMI's forecasts for Hungary's fixed-line, broadband, mobile subscriber and mobile monthly blended ARPU through to the end of 2016. Our forecasts are based on analysis of regulations, market trends and data from both the regulator and operators Telenor, Deutsche Telekom-owned T-Mobile and Vodafone Hungary, covering the period to the end of September 2011. At the time of writing, market leader T-Mobile was yet to publish data for Q411. In addition, the fixed-line and broadband sections of the report include data covering fixed-voice, fixed and mobile broadband and pay-TV reported by Magyar Telekom and Liberty Global-owned UPC.
There have been two significant developments since the Q112 update to the Hungary Telecommunications Report, both of which are covered in depth later in the report. The first significant development was the February 2012 10.8MHz of spectrum in the 900MHz band, raising HUF43.9bn (US$197mn). The tender has resulted in a new licensee in the form of an operator consortium made up of state-owned electricity firm MVM, Magyar Posta and the Hungarian Development Bank (MFB). The existing operators also won spectrum, but it is the potential impact of a new entrant that is most significant for the market. With few growth opportunities left in 2012 and a possibility of macroeconomic headwinds impacting the markets development, BMI believes the operator will face serious challenges in seeking an 11% market share by 2017.
Meanwhile, market leader Magyar Telekom announced the launch of 4G LTE services in Budapest in January 2012. It launched LTE services in 10 districts of the capital, Budapest, following a three-month trial of more than 100 personal and business users. The operator plans to continue investment in 2012 and expand coverage. The service offers a maximum download speed of 60Mbps, with a guaranteed download speed of 4Mbps and a download limit of 40GB a month. The commercial launch of LTE services makes the wireless data market one of the most developed in the region and opens new possibilities in VAS delivery.
The most recent complete set of operator data relates to the period to the end of September 2011. The Hungarian mobile market experienced a mixed 9M11, with declining subscriber numbers, but an improving subscriber mix. The majority of subscriber losses occurred in the first quarter of the year, with only minor losses in Q211 and Q311. Market leader T-Mobile reported a subscriber loss of 431,000 in Q111, with the majority of the losses occurring in the postpaid segment. The higher value of the postpaid segment makes this particularly damaging for the operator. However, T-Mobile's parent company says in its results that the loss is related to a restating of figures and this time excludes business customers. This explains the postpaid losses. This is an issue BMI plans to watch closely in the coming quarters to determine the impact on the market.
The most recent results reported by operators have also shown a slight slowdown in the fixed and mobile broadband markets. This resulted in us restating our forecasts for the broadband sector and downgrading them slightly, but we still expect robust growth. In the other segments, BMI forecasts a deceleration in the rate of decline in the fixed-line voice sector as intransigent fixed-line customers are hesitant to upgrade technologies. We downgraded our mobile forecasts based on the restated subscriber figures from T-Mobile.
Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Mobile SWOT
Fixed-Line And Internet SWOT
Political
Economic
Business Environment
Business Environment Analysis
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q212
Hungary
Industry Forecast
Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts
ARPU
Table: Telecoms Sector - Monthly Blended ARPU - Historical Data & Forecasts
Fixed Line
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts
Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Table: Hungary - Mobile Market, Q311
Table: Hungary - Mobile Market Net Additions ('000), Q310-Q311
Table: MTRs In Hungary (HUF unless stated otherwise)
Table: Telenor And T-Mobile ARPU (HUF)
Table: Hungary Mobile Market - Prepaid And Postpaid Subscribers ('000), Q210-Q311
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Total Mobile Market - Hungary
Table: Telenor
Table: T-Mobile
Table: Vodafone
Industry Trend Analysis
Cashing In On Data
Table: Mobile Broadband Subscriptions By Operator
Content Is King
Table: Top 10 Sites by Visits On Opera Mini-browser, Select Countries in CEE
Country Outlook
Table: Selected VAS Services
Fixed Line
Table: Total Fixed-Line Subscriptions By Technology ('000), Q410-Q411
Broadband
Table: Mobile Broadband Coverage, December 2011
Table: Magyar Telekom Pay-TV Subscriptions By Technology ('000) And Blended TV ARPU (HUF)
Table: Wireline Developments, 2008-2010
Regulatory Development
Table: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Table: Mobile Termination Rates In Hungary, 2005-2010
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players - Hungary Telecoms Sector
Table: Selected Operators - Financial Indicators (US$mn)
Vendor Profile
Table: Nokia Siemens Networks - Net Sales By Geographic Area, 2010-2011
Recent Key Developments
Table: Nokia Siemens Networks: Key Contracts In CEE Region, 2011-2012
Operator Profiles
Magyar Telekom
Invitel Holdings
T-Mobile Hungary
Telenor Hungary
Vodafone Hungary
Market Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Fixed line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Broadband
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Table: Ratings Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
SWOT Analysis
Mobile SWOT
Fixed-Line And Internet SWOT
Political
Economic
Business Environment
Business Environment Analysis
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q212
Hungary
Industry Forecast
Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts
ARPU
Table: Telecoms Sector - Monthly Blended ARPU - Historical Data & Forecasts
Fixed Line
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts
Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Table: Hungary - Mobile Market, Q311
Table: Hungary - Mobile Market Net Additions ('000), Q310-Q311
Table: MTRs In Hungary (HUF unless stated otherwise)
Table: Telenor And T-Mobile ARPU (HUF)
Table: Hungary Mobile Market - Prepaid And Postpaid Subscribers ('000), Q210-Q311
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Total Mobile Market - Hungary
Table: Telenor
Table: T-Mobile
Table: Vodafone
Industry Trend Analysis
Cashing In On Data
Table: Mobile Broadband Subscriptions By Operator
Content Is King
Table: Top 10 Sites by Visits On Opera Mini-browser, Select Countries in CEE
Country Outlook
Table: Selected VAS Services
Fixed Line
Table: Total Fixed-Line Subscriptions By Technology ('000), Q410-Q411
Broadband
Table: Mobile Broadband Coverage, December 2011
Table: Magyar Telekom Pay-TV Subscriptions By Technology ('000) And Blended TV ARPU (HUF)
Table: Wireline Developments, 2008-2010
Regulatory Development
Table: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Table: Mobile Termination Rates In Hungary, 2005-2010
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players - Hungary Telecoms Sector
Table: Selected Operators - Financial Indicators (US$mn)
Vendor Profile
Table: Nokia Siemens Networks - Net Sales By Geographic Area, 2010-2011
Recent Key Developments
Table: Nokia Siemens Networks: Key Contracts In CEE Region, 2011-2012
Operator Profiles
Magyar Telekom
Invitel Holdings
T-Mobile Hungary
Telenor Hungary
Vodafone Hungary
Market Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Fixed line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Broadband
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Table: Ratings Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Companies Mentioned
- Magyar Telekom
- Invitel Holdings
- T-Mobile Hungary
- Telenor Hungary
- Vodafone Hungary,
- Invitel Holdings
- T-Mobile Hungary
- Telenor Hungary
- Vodafone Hungary,
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