United Arab Emirates Freight Transport Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, March 2012, Pages: 67
Business Monitor International's United Arab Emirates Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on United Arab Emirates's freight transportation industry.
The UAE is set for another year of steady yet relatively uninspiring growth through 2012, with real GDP forecast to expand by 3.0%. This follows an estimated 3.3% rate of expansion posted in 2011. Broadly speaking, the same problems that have been weighing on the economy since 2009 look set to continue over the coming quarters, with weakness in the domestic real estate market, anaemic credit growth and ongoing deleveraging in the private sector tempering our near-term outlook. Our real GDP growth forecast for the coming year is slightly below consensus; however, this is largely a product of BMI's relatively more pessimistic outlook on the health of the global economy.
The outlook for the UAE's freight transport sector in 2012 is more upbeat, benefiting from the role of the country's ports and airports as transhipment hubs. Strong growth is forecast by BMI at all of the emirates' major facilities despite the headwinds facing the global economy, though we project that this growth rate will slow over our forecast period to 2016.
Headline Industry Data
-2012 Jebel Ali and Port Rashid total tonnage throughput growth forecast at 7.2%, and to average 5.9% to 2016.
-2012 air freight tonnes through Dubai airport forecast to grow by 5.4% and to average 5.9% to 2016.
-The UAE's total trade real growth in 2012 forecast to be 9.0%, and to average 7.2% over the medium term, to 2016.
Key Industry Trends
Rail Development Steams Ahead In UAE Through Loan Approval
BMI believes that the rail network under development in the UAE, and the wider GCC, will give a boost to freight transport in the region, enabling more efficient transport of goods through integration with industrial zones, mines and ports, and releasing capacity on the road network.
SkyCargo's Maiden Ireland Flight To Serve Pharmaceuticals Industry
BMI notes that the transport of pharmaceuticals is a growing concern for air freight companies, with considerable investment being made into developing transport solutions for the time and temperaturesensitive goods. Nevertheless, we are wary that a new Dubai-Dublin service should not be too reliant on pharmaceutical exports in light of the approaching patent cliff which could see the trade fall. However, the carrier is confident that other goods will also prove a popular cargo on the flight. Jebel Ali Announces Further Expansion Plans, Securing Gulf Transhipment Crown BMI believes that DP World's flagship facility of Jebel Ali in Dubai will remain the premier transhipment hub for the Gulf region, even in the face of increasing competition as the other countries of the GCC invest in upgraded facilities of their own. The container throughput of the GCC countries is growing rapidly, though BMI wonders if the growth is rapid enough to secure sufficient business for all of the projects scheduled to come online by 2016.
Key Risks to Outlook
The key risks to our outlook for the UAE come from the continued political unrest in the Middle East. The Arab Spring has not spread to the emirates, but neighbouring Bahrain has been affected and nowhere appears completely immune. BMI considers any serious disruption to trade in the UAE to be an outlying scenario, however. Likewise, were Iran to follow through its threats to close the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping, then there would be considerable downside risk to those UAE ports on the Gulf, and upside risk to the Sharjar terminal of Khorfakkan, which lies outside the strait on the Arabian Sea. BMI's core view is that this will not happen, however. In terms of air freight, there are risks to the downside from the global headwinds facing the sector, though expanding business from emerging markets may be sufficient to offset these.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
United Arab Emirates' Freight Transport Industry SWOT
United Arab Emirates' Political SWOT
United Arab Emirates' Economic SWOT
United Arab Emirates' Business Environment SWOT
Industry Trends And Developments
Rail
Air
Road/Logistics
Maritime
Market Overview
Industry Forecast
Maritime Freight
Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2009-2016 ('000 tonnes)
Air Freight
Table: Air Freight, 2009-2016 ('000 tonnes)
Trade
Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2016
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Table: UAE's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Table: UAE's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: United Arab Emirates – Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Company Profiles
Etihad Crystal Cargo
Aramex
Emirates SkyCargo
United Arab Shipping Company (UASC)
Gulf Energy Maritime
Abu Dhabi National Tanker Company
Gulf Navigation Holding
Gulftainer
Country Snapshot: UAE Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2000-2004
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Transport Industry
Sources
-Etihad Crystal Cargo
-Aramex
-Emirates SkyCargo
-United Arab Shipping Company (UASC)
-Gulf Energy Maritime
-Abu Dhabi National Tanker Company
-Gulf Navigation Holding
-Gulftainer
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