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Country Report Estonia Product Image

Country Report Estonia

  • ID: 2114012
  • October 2014
  • Region: Estonia
  • 67 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The recent ceasefire agreement in eastern Ukraine has not prevented outbreaks of sporadic fighting. We continue to believe that Russia sees a frozen conflict in the region as its best-case scenario, meaning that no serious moves towards establishing a comprehensive and lasting settlement will be made. Despite this, we think that EU sanctions against Russia will be eased substantially when they come up for renewal in mid-2015, owing to the need for unanimity among the 28 member states, which will be harder to reach after another year of weak or negative growth for many. However, there are unusually large risks to this view, given the likelihood that the situation on the ground will not have altered significantly by mid-2015, and given the strong support from the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, for the existing measures against Russia. At present, our growth forecasts for Europe's more open economies reflect expectations of a bounce-back in regional trade volumes once the sanctions are lifted. Should this fail to materialise, our 2016 forecasts for Germany, the Netherlands, and many central and eastern European countries would probably be revised downwards.

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Country Report Estonia

EU sanctions on Russia will be eased in 2015
A new Transdniestr?
Sanctions will lapse in mid-2015
Unusually large risks to outlook

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