Country Risk Service Jordan
The Economist Intelligence Unit, April 2013, Pages: 23
The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that King Abdullah will remain the dominant political figure in Jordan despite recent domestic and regional unrest. The security forces are effective and the threat to political stability is relatively low. The opposition Islamic Action Front (IAF, the Jordanian wing of the Muslim Brotherhood) has been weakened by in-fighting between its moderate and more extreme factions, but it has managed to unite in the wake of popular anti-government demonstrations in 2011. The government has failed to pass a new electoral law acceptable to all sides, and the increasingly emboldened IAF boycotted the election in January, leaving the newly elected parliament little more of a threat to the status quo than before. Pressure on the king to allow more substantial reform will mount. The fiscal account will remain heavily in deficit, and the government will continue to rely on an uncertain flow of foreign grants. Real GDP growth is expected to be sluggish following regional unrest and global economic uncertainty, reaching just 3% in 2013. It should pick up to an average of 4.4% in 2014-17. We expect the current-account position to improve over the forecast period, but it will remain in deficit.
We have made no major adjustments to the political outlook. Abdullah Ensour has been reappointed as prime minister and his cabinet is awaiting approval by parliament. There are no members of parliament (MPs) in the cabinet despite demands from MPs for some posts to be held for parliamentarians.
The economic policy outlook is unchanged. We expect foreign budgetary support from regional allies to increase in 2013-14. The IMF has also confirmed that Jordan will receive the next tranche of its IMF support soon.
Country Risk Service Jordan
Jordan at a glance: 2013-17
OVERVIEW
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Economic policy outlook
Economic forecast
Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Outlook
Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Outlook
Foreign-exchange regime
Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Outlook
Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment
Country risk
Overall country risk
Rating definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk
Central scenario for 2013-17: Political stability
Central scenario for 2013-17: Election watch
Central scenario for 2013-17: International relations
Central scenario for 2013-17: Policy trends
Central scenario for 2013-17: Fiscal policy
Central scenario for 2013-17: Monetary policy
Central scenario for 2013-17: Economic growth
Central scenario for 2013-17: Inflation
Central scenario for 2013-17: Exchange rates
Central scenario for 2013-17: External sector
Central scenario for 2013-17: External financing requirement
Central scenario for 2013-17: External debt
Key risk indicators
Ratings summary
Quarterly indicators
International assumptions summary
Economic structure
Public finances
Exchange rates, interest rates and prices
Financial sector
Current account
International liquidity
Foreign payment and liquidity indicators
External trade
External financing requirement
External debt stock
External debt service
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