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Country Risk Service Zambia Product Image

Country Risk Service Zambia

  • Published: April 2013
  • 23 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

The president, Michael Sata, and his party, the Patriotic Front (PF), will remain in power at least until the next elections in 2016. The government will focus on boosting mining revenue, supporting local investment and lowering unemployment. It will remain willing to intervene directly in the economy in pursuit of these goals. The fiscal deficit is forecast to narrow in 2014-15 as the government restricts spending growth to keep the debt stock in check. We forecast real GDP growth at 7% in 2013 as maize and copper output recover, an average of 8.1% in 2014-16 as various large mining projects come on stream, and 5.5% in 2017 as the copper boom winds down. Services and agriculture are expected to grow robustly throughout 2013-17. Our forecasts allow for some delays in ongoing copper projects, and growth will be higher if they are completed on time. It would be lower than forecast in the event of drought, a slump in copper prices or a major deterioration in the policy agenda.

The PF's parliamentary base has grown following its victory in two recent by-elections (which were marred by violence and low voter turnout). It is still five seats short of a parliamentary majority.

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Country Risk Service Zambia

Zambia at a glance: 2013-17
OVERVIEW
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Economic policy outlook
Economic forecast

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Outlook

Currency risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Outlook
Foreign-exchange regime

Banking sector risk
Current assessment
Positive factors
Negative factors
Outlook

Generic risks
Political risk assessment
Economic structure risk assessment

Country risk
Overall country risk

Rating definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2013-17: Political stability

Central scenario for 2013-17: Election watch

Central scenario for 2013-17: International relations

Central scenario for 2013-17: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2013-17: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2013-17: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2013-17: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2013-17: Inflation

Central scenario for 2013-17: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2013-17: External sector

Central scenario for 2013-17: External financing requirement

Central scenario for 2013-17: External debt

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service

Format Properties
Electronic (PDF) The report will be emailed to you. The report is sent in PDF format. This is a single user license, allowing one specific user access to the product.
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