Country Forecast Norway Updater

  • ID: 2114053
  • June 2016
  • Region: Norway
  • 16 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The right-of-centre minority government, comprising the Conservatives and the Progress Party (FrP), is reliant on parliamentary support from two smaller, centrist parties: the Liberals and the Christian Democrats. They opted not to join a formal coalition (owing primarily to concerns about the presence of the FrP). Intra-party tensions will continue to surface, particularly on immigration-related issues. However, The Economist Intelligence Unit's forecast is that the government will serve its full term to late 2017. Opinion polls since the beginning of 2016 have consistently placed the centre-right bloc in parliament ahead of the centre-left bloc, and we expect a Conservative-led coalition government to be returned to office in the next election.

We expect modest progress in efforts to strengthen business activity in the mainland economy against the backdrop of declining oil output and revenue, but low productivity will remain a cause for concern. Recently downgraded growth forecasts prompted the government to increase the size of its planned fiscal stimulus in the revised 2016 budget in May. A gradual reduction in the headline corporation tax rate, from 27% in 2015 to 22% in 2018, is being phased in.

Norges Bank (the central bank) cut its main policy interest rate to a record-low 0.5% in March, amid weak output and a deteriorating economic outlook. Further easing is expected this year, and it is possible that Norges Bank will join other central banks in imposing negative interest rates at some point, despite high and rising private-sector indebtedness and strong house-price growth.

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Country Forecast Norway Updater

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Norway's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2016-20: Political stability

Outlook for 2016-20: Election watch

Outlook for 2016-20: International relations

Outlook for 2016-20: Policy trends

Outlook for 2016-20: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2016-20: Economic growth

Outlook for 2016-20: Inflation

Outlook for 2016-20: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2016-20: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data sources and definitions
Global data
Domestic data

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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown


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